Avai vs Palmeiras
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 20 November 2017
Kick-off: 23:00 CET
Using the term “deserved point” is rather common, but Avai took it to a whole different level a few days ago, when they visited Cruzeiro. They took the lead in the 22nd minute from the penalty spot, created chances to score again, missed them, and in the 79th minute they found themselves 2-1 down, after a non-existent penalty that the referee gave Cruzeiro (possibly because he had given that – existent – penalty to Avai in the first half). The Florianopolis side had something over 10 minutes to get something from that game, and in added time, Júnior Dutra did it again, his ninth goal of the season, earning Avai at least a point. They remain at a very disadvantageous position, they are second-to-last, three points behind Ponte Preta and Vitoria, but they have two of their last three games at home, and are still dreaming of saving their season.
Palmeiras’ jerseys have a badge “reminding” everyone that they won the Serie A last season. They were hoping to retain that badge (updating the year) for another season, but despite thrashing Sport Recife 5-1 midweek, they now know they will not be the champions come the last matchday of this season. What makes this hurt even more, is that they will spend a whole year seeing the same badge “adorning” the jerseys of their biggest rivals, Corinthians. “Palmeiras and over 2.5 goals” was the suggestion here the other day, and it may have taken the Sao Paulo side 57 minutes to… get started, take the lead (having gotten lucky earlier not to concede), but once that happened, it… rained goals at Palmeiras’ impressive stadium. Final score, 5-1, with Deyverson, scorer of the first goal, not celebrating it, pissed off about what he had heard from the stands a little earlier, when he missed a big chance.
Previous 5 matches:
Cruzeiro vs Avai 2-2
Corinthians vs Avai 1-0
Avai vs Bahia 1-2
Coritiba vs Avai 4-0
Avai vs Gremio 2-2
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife 5-1
Palmeiras vs Flamengo 2-0
Vitoria vs Palmeiras 3-1
Corinthians vs Palmeiras 3-2
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 2-2
Avai’s next game is again at home, next Sunday, versus Atletico Paranaense. A day later, Palmeiras will be hosting Botafogo (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Avai vs Palmeiras: Head to head Stats
Palmeiras have three wins in a row at Avai. Before that, the hosts had managed a win and a draw. Three of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Avai vs Palmeiras: Prediction
At this point, a draw is not enough for Avai. They need to win, they need to risk, they need to score, and all that, against one of the best teams in the country. I’ll be surprised if they beat Palmeiras, but I do see them score.
Avai vs Palmeiras: Betting Tips
“Both teams to score” pays 1.83 and is my main tip. Palmeiras’ win in “draw no bet” is at 1.53, but first, it pays less than “both teams to score”, and in full honesty, I feel the risk involved (Avai are DESPERATE to win) is not worth it, so I would stick to that 1.83, which I consider very-very probable. For more than that, I would try “over 2.5 goals”, at 2.00 betting odds.
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