Cerro Porteno vs Monagas
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 24 May 2018
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
Cerro Porteño have already qualified for the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores. Third-placed Defensor Sporting are six points behind them, after that 1-0 win of Cerro in Montevideo last week. To finish first in the group (and have a – theoretically – better draw on June 4), Cerro need to win, and Gremio not to beat Defensor Sporting in Porto Alegre. If they somehow finish level on points, Cerro will be left second in the group. Last weekend they beat Independiente de Campo Grande 3-0 at Defensores del Chaco. They are nine points behind leaders Olimpia in Paraguay’s Apertura, and the coming weekend the title may be decided, even mathematically (more or less, it has already been decided; crazy things have to happen for Olimpia to lose the title). Kevin Fernández, Cerro’s 19-year-old midfielder, scored his third goal of the season last weekend, in 10 appearances. He got injured (hand), had to get substituted, but on Monday he said he was ready to play again, with some sort of protection for his two hurt fingers. Center-back Marcos Cáceres is on two yellow cards, and he may sit out, so as to avoid seeing a third one, which would keep him out of the round of 16 first leg. Uruguayan midfielder Hernán Novick missed some training sessions these last days due to a minor injury, and he too could sit out.
Monagas are at the bottom of the table, on three points from five matches, one less than third-placed Defensor Sporting. To finish third, they need to beat Cerro, and Defensor Sporting not to beat Gremio in Porto Alegre. If Monagas somehow earn a draw in Asunción, and Defensor Sporting lose at Gremio (which is the most-most probable), the two teams will finish level on points, but Monagas will be left fourth, because of a worse goal difference. Last Friday they lost 1-0 at Portuguesa, finishing 15th in Venezuela’s championship. Only the first eight will play in the finals series, and Monagas didn’t even finish close to that group of teams. Last week, they lost 2-1 at home to Gremio, equalizing in added-time, but conceding again, before the final whistle, from the penalty spot.
Previous five matches:
Independiente CG vs Cerro Porteno 0-3
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Porteno 0-1
Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia 1-0
Deportivo Capiata vs Cerro Porteno 2-3
Cerro Porteno vs Libertad 0-2
Portuguesa vs Monagas 1-0
Monagas vs Gremio 1-2
Monagas vs Metropolitanos 1-0
Academia Puerto Cabello vs Monagas 1-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Monagas 1-1
Cerro’s next game is on Sunday, again at home, versus General Díaz (Paraguay Apertura). Monagas don’t have a next game scheduled yet.
Cerro Porteno vs Monagas: Head to head Stats
Cerro have never hosted Monagas before.
Cerro Porteno vs Monagas: Prediction
Cerro have four wins in row, Monagas have won just one of their last six games, so that 1.22 of Cerro’s win sort of makes sense. Seeing they victory pay that little, I prefer to bet on goals.
Cerro Porteno vs Monagas: Betting Tips
Monagas cannot sit back and waste time, they need to win the game, hoping to finish third. Cerro see this match as an awesome chance to celebrate with their fans their success to qualify for the last 16 of the competition. “Over 2.5 goals”, at 1.60, feels very probable to me, and pushing it a bit, I would risk with “over 3.5 goals”, at 2.50.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: