Fluminense vs Flamengo
Competition: Copa Sudamericana
Date: 26 October 2017
Kick-off: 01:45 CET
Knowing that Fluminense had prioritized this game against Flamengo over the match versus Chapecoense last weekend, I backed Chape to pick up all three points in the Serie A, and they did (paying the 2.00 that came with), easily, taking the lead in the 4th minute, and putting the game to bed seconds into the second half (2-0). At this point, with Fluminense sitting 13th in the Brasileirao’s table, the Copa Sudamericana matches, even the quarterfinals, feel like finals to Flu. Winning the competition (where their chances, mathematically, right now, are not higher than 12.5%), would mean more than winning a title. They would be guaranteed a spot in next season’s Copa Libertadores group stage as well, not to mention the chance to fight for another title, the Recopa Sudamericana (South America’s Super Cup), against the winner of the Copa Libertadores. In other words, the Sudamericana presents Flu with their only, at this point, opportunity, to… pretty much save their – way below average – season.
Just like I backed Chape to beat Fluminense last weekend, I backed Sao Paulo as well to beat Flamengo (2.20), not only because Sao Paulo… needed those points more than Fla, but also because it was anything but a secret that the Rio de Janeiro side would play with a heavily rotated squad at Pacaembu (not Morumbi, Sao Paulo’s real home). Again, just like Chape, Sao Paulo put the game to bed early and easily, leading 2-0 by halftime (that was the final score as well). Another thing Fluminense and Flamengo have an in common is that they are both looking at the Copa Sudamericana as their chance to save their season. One difference though, is that Flamengo are much closer to the Copa Libertadores positions in the Serie A table, compared to their Rio de Janeiro rivals. Do keep in mind that the game is held at Maracana, the return leg will be held there as well, next week, so there is no real home advantage in these two quarterfinals.
Previous five matches:
Chapecoense vs Fluminense 2-0
Fluminensne vs Avai 1-0
Flamengo vs Fluminense 1-1
Gremio vs Fluminense 1-0
Fluminensne vs Palmeiras 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo 2-0
Flamengo vs Bahia 4-1
Flamengo vs Fluminense 1-1
Ponte Preta vs Flamengo 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo 0-0
Fluminense’s next game is on Sunday again at home, versus Bahia. A day earlier, Flamengo will be hosting Vasco da Gama (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Fluminense vs Flamengo: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Flamengo and three draws, no win for Fluminense, in the last five games between these two with Flu as hosts. Three of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Fluminense vs Flamengo: Prediction
There is an eight-point gap between the two in Brazil’s Serie A, but looking at their record the last five weeks you see exactly the same results. They both lost their last matches, they both had two wins and a draw before that, and both had lost their games before picking up seven points from three matches. My point is, despite the considerable advantage Fla have in the championship (over their city rivals), things in the last weeks look incredibly balanced between them, which makes Flamengo’s 1.95 to win this game look like a temptation to me, to go against it.
Fluminense vs Flamengo: Betting Tips
Fluminense’s double chance at 1.75 is my tip, despite acknowledging that Flamengo have a superior roster. These Flu-Fla games have a… logic of their own, like all local derbies, and you don’t need to go that far back to find a proof of that, as Flamengo and Fluminense drew 1-1 at Maracana just two weeks ago, in Brazil’s championship, despite Flamengo being considered big favorites back then.