Fluminense vs Ponte Preta
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 20 November 2017
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
Henrique’s goal less than two minutes into the game gave Fluminense the lead at Corinthians the other day, Flu managed to go to the dressing room at halftime leading, but if you watched the game you should be having the feeling that a… tsunami was about to wash Fluminense away in the second half, and that’s what happened. The stadium was as full as it gets, Corinthians were super motivated to win and secure the championship title, and Fluminense just couldn’t resist. By the 49th minute, they were 2-1 down(!). Given how the rest of the second half went, Flu should be feeling lucky to have left Sao Paulo with a 3-1 (they conceded the last goal late), and not a much heavier score, as there were times that it felt as if Corinthians were doing anything they wanted on the pitch. It was Fluminense’s second straight 3-1 loss (both away from home). They are 15th, four points ahead of Ponte Preta, the first team right below the relegation line. In other words, a loss in this match, will get the Rio de Janeiro side in major trouble.
Ponte Preta remain below the relegation line, but things looks much better than what they looked before they hosted Atletico Paranaense a few days ago. Their 2-1 win, thanks to two Danilo Barcelos goals (he now has five in the season, the best he has had in his career so far), have them on 39 points, level with Vitoria, whose goal difference though is slightly better than Ponte’s, this is why the Salvador side are 16th, and Ponte 17th. This game would be huge for Ponte Preta no matter whom they had opposite them, but the fact that it’s Fluminense makes this game even bigger. As things stand today, it’s five teams fighting for one spot, the 16th, to avoid relegation. If Ponte beat Fluminense, they make this a six-team thing, as they will be closing the gap on the Rio de Janeiro side to just one point.
Previous 5 matches:
Corinthians vs Fluminense 3-1
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 3-1
Fluminense vs Coritiba 2-2
Botafogo vs Fluminense 1-2
Flamengo vs Fluminense 3-3
Ponte Preta vs Atletico PR 2-1
Coritiba vs Ponte Preta 1-1
Ponte Preta vs Gremio 0-1
Bahia vs Ponte Preta 2-0
Ponte Preta vs Corinthians 1-0
Fluminense’s next game is again at home, on Saturday, versus Sport Recife. A day later, Ponte Preta will be hosting Vitoria (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Fluminense vs Ponte Preta: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Flu and two draws in the last five games between these two in Rio de Janeiro. Two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Fluminense vs Ponte Preta: Prediction
Fluminense are considered clear favorites to win the game. Do I trust them enough to back them to win without the safety net of “draw no bet”? As I’ve written in similar cases these past weeks, I feel there are certain games in which the jerseys, how “heavy” they are, play a role, and this game is one of those. Fluminense have failed big this season, but they remain… Fluminense, they are playing at home, backed by their fans, and “obliged” by their big name and history to do the absolute minimum, avoid relegation. All things considered, I’m going with their win.
Fluminense vs Ponte Preta: Betting Tips
Fluminense’s win pays 1.83. “Both teams to score” is at 1.95. “Over 2.5 goals” pays 2.10, and last but not least (exactly the opposite), “Fluminense and over 2.5 goals” is at 3.20 betting odds (suiting my 2-1 hunch).
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