Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 15 November 2017
Kick-off: 22:30 CET
“Both teams to score” (1.90) and Vitoria’s double chance (2.25) were the two suggestions here when Gremio hosted Vitoria last weekend (not in Porto Alegre, at their stadium, but at a much smaller stadium, in Caxias do Sul, still in the same State, Rio Grande do Sul). The game ended in a 1-1 draw, a rather poor result, taking into consideration how many chances both teams created. Gremio wanted all three points to stay as close as possible to Corinthians, even though I seriously doubt there are more than just a few “incorrigible positive-thinkers” among Gremio’s fans who still believe that their team can win the Serie A title. Gremio went 1-0 down in the 16th minute, equalized just three minutes later (Fernandinho scored his ninth goal of the season, in 27 appearances), but despite their numerous chances in the remainder of the match they couldn’t score that second goal that would give them all three points. They are now left 10 whole points behind leaders Corinthians, meaning that with just four matches remaining, this one included, their chances of… performing a miracle in the championship are close to non-existent. Be reminded, they are facing Lanus in Copa Libertadores’ final, later this month.
A win at Sao Januario last weekend over Vasco da Gama, would have boosted Sao Paulo’s chances of finishing in a position that would give them the chance to try their luck in the qualifiers of next season’s Copa Libertadores, but looking at the 90 minutes played in Rio de Janeiro as a whole, even Sao Paulo fans should admit that their team were not done any injustice by earning just one point. Marcos Guilherme scored a spectacular goal in the 40th minute to give Sao Paulo the lead (his sixth goal in 18 appearances this season), and the visitors held on to that 1-0 lead until the 76th minute, when they finally succumbed. Given that they finished the game with 10 players, because of Éder Militão’s red card in the 83rd minute, they should feel ok with leaving Rio de Janeiro with that point. They are sitting 11th in the table, which still feels like a welcome position, keeping in mind that they spent a good part of the season either below, or right above the relegation line.
Previous five matches:
Gremio vs Vitoria 1-1
Ponte Preta vs Gremio 0-1
Gremio vs Flamengo 3-1
Gremio vs Barcelona 0-1
Avai vs Gremio 2-2
Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo 1-1
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense 2-2
Atletico GO vs Sao Paulo 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Santos 2-1
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo 2-0
Gremio’s next game is on Sunday, at Santos. Same day, Sao Paulo will be hosting Botafogo (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Gremio vs Sao Paulo: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Gremio, two for Sao Paulo, and one draw, in the last five games between these two in Porto Alegre. Two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Gremio vs Sao Paulo: Prediction
There is no doubt that Gremio are a far better team than Sao Paulo this season, but in this specific game I’m backing the visitors to earn at least a draw. Keep in mind, they have lost just one of their last seven matches, while Gremio have won just one of their last four home games.
Gremio vs Sao Paulo: Betting Tips
Between Gremio’s win at 1.95 and Sao Paulo’s double chance at 1.78 betting odds, I feel the latter represents better value, so I’m going with that, counting on the visitors to get at least a point. My main tip though, is “both teams to score”, at 2.05.
More Brazil Serie A betting tips and match previews: