Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze
Competition: Poland Ekstraklasa
Date: 14 April 2018
Kick-off: 18:00 CET
Jagiellonia Bialystok had won six games in a row at home before hosting Wisla Plock last weekend, but I didn’t trust them to win that specific game, I suggested Plock’s double chance and “over 2.5 combined goals” (both paying just under 2.00), and Jagiellonia not only didn’t win, but they lost the game 1-3(!). Lech won their match, and just like that Jagiellonia are no longer leaders, earning zero point from their last two regular season games. The stadium was practically full, they had a huge motive to win, they had an awesome home record going for them, but somehow, on the pitch, they got outsmarted, outplayed, and didn’t really deserve a point. Even so, the gap between them and leaders Lech Poznan is minimal, a single good/bad result can make a huge difference, so it’s of utmost importance to them to start with a win over Gornik.
No surprise, really. Gornik Zabrze conceded three more goals last weekend, at Lech Poznan, lost the game 3-1, even though they leveled the score (1-1) in the 74th minute from the penalty spot. Truth is, they didn’t deserve a point in Poznan, not the way the whole 90 minutes went. They did make my “both teams to score” (1.85, much better than Lech’s win) tip come good, though. It’s… shocking that a team that finished 5th in regular season, conceded an unbelievable 46 goals in 30 matches. No win for them in the last four game weeks of regular season, and just one win since mid February actually, that 3-0 at Piast Gliwice, early March. Gornik scored 56 goals in regular season, 56, which explains their fifth spot in the table, despite their hideous defensive record. Do keep in mind, Gornik have a massive Cup match coming up, at Legia Warsaw. It’s a semifinal, return leg, with the first one having ended in a 1-1 draw. That semi is much more important to Gornik than the game against Jagiellonia, because there is a ticket to a final at stake, a door that could lead to a title and a ticket to the Europa League.
Previous five matches:
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Plock 1-3
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Arka Gdynia 3-2
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow 2-0
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze 3-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warsaw 1-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz 2-2
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze 2-2
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin 2-2
Jagiellonia’s next game is at Korona Kielce, next weekend (Ekstraklasa). Gornik are visiting Legia Warsaw on Wednesday (Poland Cup).
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Jagiellonia, one for Gornik, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Bialystok. Three of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze: Prediction
Jaga are considered clear favourites to win the game. After losing their last two though, I feel their 1.67 doesn’t correspond to the risk involved in backing them to win. I prefer to bet on goals instead.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze: Betting Tips
“Both teams to score” is at 1.70, and “over 2.5 goals” pays 1.72. I’m going with the former, expecting indeed both teams to find the back of the net. I would leave “over 2.5 goals” aside, but if I were after something over 2.50, I would risk betting on “over 3.5 goals”, at 2.65.
More Poland Ekstraklasa betting tips and match previews: