Libertad vs Olimpia
Competition: Paraguay Apertura
Date: 12 April 2018
Kick-off: 02:15 CET
Libertad needed an 88th-minute goal to beat General Díaz on Saturday at home, a goal that… did the game justice, as the hosts were far-far superior and should have secured the three points way earlier. They didn’t just have “more” chances to score than General Díaz, they were the only team that created – several – chances, doing an awesome job defensively, not allowing the visitors a single chance in 90 minutes. Wilson Leiva was Libertad’s savior, four days after scoring twice against The Strongest as well, in their 3-0 home victory in the Libertadores. The gap between Libertad and Olimpia is at six points, with half the Apertura gone. This is their golden opportunity to… cover 50% of the distance that separates them from the leaders. Important detail, the game is held at Defensores del Chaco, not at Libertad’s real home, Nicolás Leoz. That’s where they play when they know that they will definitely sell many more tickets than what they would be able to sell at their much smaller stadium.
As previously mentioned, the game is held at Defensores del Chaco, and yes, Olimpia are technically the visitors, but in reality, their fans on the stands will be many-many more than those of Libertad, so, in a way, it will be a home game for them. Then again, the very same happened last Saturday, when they “visited” Nacional, and the best they could get was a – very lucky – 0-0 draw. Sure, Olimpia had three good chances in the second half, but they were saved by their… guardian angel in the first half, their goalkeeper Alfredo Aguilar, who denied Nacional’s Adam Bareiro, again, and again, and again… Plus, it was Nacional who missed the last good chances late in the game, when Olimpia’s players looked… exhausted. The “Franjeado” remains at the top of the table, but they have definitely… slowed down, with two draws in their last three matches.
Previous five matches:
Libertad vs General Diaz 1-0
Libertad vs The Strongest 3-0
Independiente CG vs Libertad 3-1
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad 1-1
Deportivo Capiata vs Libertad 2-4
Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia 0-0
Olimpia vs Deportivo Capiata 1-0
Olimpia vs Sol de America 3-3
3 de Febrero vs Olimpia 0-4
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno 1-0
Libertad’s next game is on Saturday, again at home, versus Sportivo Luqueño. A day later, Olimpia will be hosting Independiente de Campo Grande (both Paraguay Apertura matches).
Libertad vs Olimpia: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Libertad and two draws in the last five games between these two with Libertad as hosts. Four of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Libertad vs Olimpia: Prediction
Olimpia are considered favourites to win the game, but their recent appearances make it very hard to me to back them to win.
Libertad vs Olimpia: Betting Tips
Libertad’s double chance is at 1.60, not… spectacular, but very probable, from my point of view, having seen Olimpia struggle against much weaker sides lately. Draw, at 3.22, feels more probable than a Libertad win. “Under 2.5 goals” is a bet I like in this game, at 1.82, again, having seen Olimpia struggle in their last two games.