Melgar vs Santiago Wanderers
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 7 February 2018
Kick-off: 01:30 CET
Draw (3.50) and Melgar’s double chance (2.15) were my tips last week when the Peruvian side visited Santiago Wanderers, and both came good, as Melgar drew 1-1, reacting to the… initial shock of going 1-0 down less than 120 seconds into the game. They scored just before half time, and stayed with that, avoiding taking risks in the second part. On Saturday, they beat Deportivo Municipal 3-1, on their debut in the new Peru championship campaign. They looked good, threatening often, scoring three goals, playing with seven changes in their lineup, compared to the first leg against Wanderers. Coach Enrique Meza preferred to rest most of his regulars, prioritizing (no surprise) the Copa Libertadores qualifier.
Santiago Wanderers have a tough (mentally, possibly more than anything else) season ahead of them, playing in Chile’s second division. Last weekend they started their campaign beating San Marcos 1-0 away from home, being obliged to… get used to playing in this category, painful, but… unavoidable. Their Libertadores qualifiers against Melgar are a very welcome bonus, they definitely looked enthusiastic last week in the first leg, scored less than two minutes after kick-off, but… gradually, you could see they lacked that extra something to beat Melgar. Against San Marcos, Nicolás Córdova, the Wanderers coach, made less changes to his starting lineup (compared to his Melgar counterpart), keeping seven of his Libertadores starters. They actually had an easier night than what the final 1-0 suggests, as the hosts were reduced to 10 men 35 minutes into the game, when their goalkeeper touched the ball with his hand outside the box and got sent off.
Previous five matches:
Deportivo Municipal vs Melgar 1-3
Santiago Wanderers vs Melgar 1-1
Melgar vs Sport Huancayo 4-0
Deportivo Municipal vs Melgar 1-1
Melgar vs Juan Aurich 4-3
San Marcos vs Santiago Wanderers 0-1
Wanderers vs Melgar 1-1
Colo Colo vs Wanderers 3-0
Wanderers vs Unión La Calera 0-1
Unión La Calera vs Wanderers 0-1
Melgar’s next game is again at home, on Sunday, versus Sport Boys (Peru championship). A day earlier, Wanderers will have hosted Barnechea (Chile championship, second division).
Melgar vs Santiago Wanderers: Head to head Stats
Last week’s game was the first ever between these two.
Melgar vs Santiago Wanderers: Prediction
Melgar are considered big favourites not just to qualify, but to win the game as well, but I have my doubts. The fact that they can qualify without necessarily winning this game, makes me extra hesitant to pick their 1.53, which I either way consider low.
Melgar vs Santiago Wanderers: Betting Tips
I like Santiago Wanderers’ double chance at 2.60. If you’re after smaller odds with much less risk involved, go for their +1.5 Asian handicap. It doesn’t pay more than 1.45, but as an add-on to a bigger bet, I consider it a very probable to come good bonus. Despite being a second (Chile) division team, they actually have a decent roster, and if they lose, I seriously doubt this will happen by more than a single goal.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: