PAOK vs AEK Athens
Competition: Greece Super League
Date: 11 March 2018
Kick-off: 18:30 CET
It will be… ironic beyond description if PAOK lose the championship title for a single point… Last weekend, inexplicably, they conceded three goals in a single match, at Asteras Tripolis, the same team that had conceded eight goals in 23 matches before that. PAOK equalised 2-2 deep into added time, and since draw didn’t feel good enough, they ran to pick up the ball and try score a winner. They sort of got carried away, gave the chance to Asteras to go on a counterattack, and in the seventh minute of added time, Asteras scored again… 3-2, no points for PAOK, their first defeat since… ever, and first week they spent looking at AEK’s back in the table, after a long time. On Saturday, they were informed about the final decision regarding their game against Olympiakos. They lost it 0-3, but no points were deducted from them after all, and they were allowed to have fans against AEK! The tickets are going on sale just a few hours before kick-off.
Every Super League game is about three points, but there are some that we use to call “six-point games”, and this is one of those for AEK. They are two points ahead of PAOK, and this is their golden opportunity to take a massive advantage to win the championship title. Even a draw would be a good result for them. Last weekend I backed them to beat Panionios at home without conceding, and that’s what they did. They won 1-0, not getting threatened by Panionios, and missing more than half a dozen huge chances to score more themselves. Ukrainian central defender Dmytro Chygrynskiy missed most training sessions this week, and just before AEK flew to Thessaloniki his chances of playing were close to zero.
Previous five matches:
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK 3-2
Panionios vs PAOK 1-3
Lamia vs PAOK 0-2
PAOK vs AEL Larissa 3-0
Atromitos vs PAOK 1-3
AEK Athens vs Panionios 1-0
AEL Larissa vs AEK Athens
Atromitos vs AEK Athens 1-1
Dynamo Kiev vs AEK Athens 0-0
AEK Athens vs Xanthi 4-0
PAOK’s next game is at Atromitos, next weekend. AEK will be hosting Panathinaikos (both Greece Super League matches).
PAOK vs AEK Athens: Head to head Stats
Four wins for PAOK and one for AEK in the last five games between these two in Thessaloniki. Only two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
PAOK vs AEK Athens: Prediction
Looking at this as objectively as possible, I don’t feel PAOK have a much better team than AEK, and definitely not THAT much better as for their win to be paying just 1.67. I find that ridiculous. Do I believe PAOK can win? Yes. But at 1.67, I’m not touching their victory.
PAOK vs AEK Athens: Betting Tips
AEK’s double chance at 2.20 pays so well that I find it hard to ignore it. Betting companies expect this to be a low-scoring game, but I’d bet on “over 2.5 goals”, at 2.45, counting on PAOK’s need to win the game, as a simple draw, under the current circumstances, won’t be good enough for them. They need to risk, and AEK are lethal when they find space to counterattack.
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