Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan
Competition: Poland Ekstraklasa
Date: 3 December 2017
Kick-off: 15:30 CET
A week ago, I backed Piast Gliwice to get at least a draw at Pogon Szczecin, their double chance was at 1.95, much better than Pogon’s win alone, so I had every reason to… like the final 2-2, but in all fairness, that result was super flattering to Piast. They did take the lead just four minutes into the game, but their next real chance was… the one that led to their 2-2 equalizer, in the 82nd minute. They spent practically the whole game being second best on the pitch, and they were incredibly lucky to be losing “only” 2-1 when they equalized. They were even luckier to see that 2-2 stay intact until the final whistle, as Pogon missed three more great chances to score after Piast’s equalizer. They remained penultimate in the table, a win in Szczecin would have pushed them as high as 12th(!), but they can’t really complain, instead, they should be thanking their luck for leaving Pogon’s stadium undefeated.
Lech Poznan had four draws and a loss, no wins, in their last five matches before hosting Wisla Plock last weekend, but they took perfect advantage of their guests’ pathetic goalkeeper to take the lead in the 13th minute, put Wisla under a lot of pressure, and eventually beat them 2-1, a score that should have been bigger. Lech played… cleverly, focusing on Wisla’s weaknesses, their unreliable goalkeeper, their defenders’ tendency to mess things up when under pressure. Their first goal came from a long shot that Wisla’s keeper should have dealt with, and their second goal was a product of a big defensive mistake, which Gytkjær was quick to take advantage of, scoring his ninth goal of the season (including two in the Europa League qualifiers). Despite not having won for a whole month, Lech sat fourth in the table after last weekend’s matches, just four points behind leaders Gornik.
Previous five matches:
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice 2-2
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 1-0
Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice 2-1
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock 2-1
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice 2-2
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock 2-1
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Lech Poznan 0-0
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan 3-1
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan 3-3
Piast’s next game is at Slask Wroclaw, next Saturday. A day later, Lech will be hosting Cracovia Krakow (both Poland Ekstraklasa matches).
Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Piast and three for Lech in the last five games between these two in Gliwice. Three of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan: Prediction
Lech are considered clear favorites to win, but… they haven’t won a game away from home since August 20(!), and Piast have lost just one of their last six matches, home and away. All things considered, I’m backing the hosts to earn at least a draw, despite acknowledging that Lech are a much better team.
Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan: Betting Tips
Piast’s double chance is at 1.80 betting odds, which I prefer to Lech’s win at 1.95. Draw, at 3.40, feels much more probable than a Piast’s win, but even 1.80 may be enough for some of you, minimizing the risk.