San Lorenzo vs Flamengo
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 18 May 2017
Kick-off: 02:45 CET
What a change of fate for San Lorenzo. They had zero points and 0-5 goals in the first two group games against the Brazilian sides of the bunch, but then they got a draw at Universidad Catolica, and it was like someone… pushed a button, waking them up. Victories over Catolica at home, and at Atletico Paranaense two weeks ago, have made them favorites to qualify for the last 16, first because they are playing their last game at home, and also because they have the advantage over both Atletico Paranaense and Universidad Catolica, in case they finish on the same points. A win over Flamengo, means they finish first in the group. A draw, will have them waiting for the Universidad Catolica vs Atletico Paranaense result, hoping the Brazilians don’t win. San Lorenzo are in excellent form, they have five consecutive wins in all competitions, keeping three clean sheets as well. Last weekend they won 1-0 at Huracan, and are sitting second in the table of Argentina’s championship, three points behind leaders Boca Juniors.
Flamengo are sitting first in the group table, but two hours after kick-off they could be as low as third, and out of the last 16 of the competition. A defeat at San Lorenzo, and an Atletico Paranaense win at Universidad Catolica will leave ‘Fla’ third, which will be a massive failure for the Rio de Janeiro club. They have already lost their two group games away from home, but they have won all three in Rio. Last weekend they drew 1-1 to Atletico Mineiro on the first day of the new Brazilian championship. Diego, one of Flamengo’s most well-known players, stayed back, not having recovered yet, fully, from his latest injury. Right-back Para picked up a third yellow card in Flamengo’s last Libertadores game, so he’s suspended, and will be replaced by Rodinei, who has actually done an awesome job lately, even scoring against Universidad Catolica and Fluminense, in the Copa Libertadores and the Carioca final respectively.
San Lorenzo vs Flamengo: Head-to-head Stats
San Lorenzo have hosted Flamengo twice before, both times in 2001, first in the group stage of the Copa Mercosur (the Brazilian side won 2-1), and then in the return leg of the final. The game ended in a goalless draw, just like the first leg, and San Lorenzo won the game and the title on penalties.
San Lorenzo vs Flamengo: Prediction
Super tricky game, mostly because depending on how the other group game goes the same time this game will be played, the two teams could… adjust their target. For example, if Universidad Catolica get a 2-0 lead at halftime over Atletico Paranaense, San Lorenzo and Flamengo will know that a simple 0-0 in their game will be enough for both of them to qualify.
San Lorenzo vs Flamengo: Tips
I cannot imagine San Lorenzo lose this game, but ‘San Lorenzo or draw’ is at just 1.30. ‘Under 2.5 goals’ is at 1.61, and I consider it very-very probable. I’m really struggling to suggest something that pays more than that. Personally, I would leave this game aside, it’s just too-too tricky, for the reason already explained.