Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 13 June 2018
Kick-off: 02:30 CET
Sao Paulo hadn’t beaten Atlético Paranaense in Curitiba since 1982(!), but on Saturday, I backed them to pick up all three points (their win in “draw no bet” was paying just under 2.00), and they delivered, winning the game 1-0. “Again, I took it badly”, Nenê, Sao Paulo’s scorer, admitted later, talking about his penalty in the 62nd minute. He has taken three penalties thus far this season, one in the Paulista championship and three in the Série A, he has sent the ball in on all four occasions, but his last two kicks were very bad, and in both cases he was extremely lucky to see the ball pass just under the goalkeeper’s body. Sao Paulo’s coach, Diego Aguirre, said he’s not afraid the team will get… dismantled during the World Cup finals break, and that he expects new players to be signed. His comment had to do with the fact that several Sao Paulo players have attracted interest from abroad, and right now, no one at Morumbi can be sure what the team, who are currently sitting third in the table, will look like in mid July, when the season restarts.
I have to admit that Vitória’s performance at Corinthians on Saturday was a double surprise for me; first, because they didn’t concede, despite being the team with the worst record in the Série A (no one has conceded more goals than them), and second because throughout the game, but especially in the first 30 minutes, they showed no hesitation, they didn’t miss a chance to go on the counterattack, to step into Corinthians’ box. If you watch the highlights, in the first two minutes you may be left with the impression that there is a mistake or something, because the first six worth-mentioning situations in a box, were actually in Corinthians’ box, with Vitória having started the game way better than their hosts. They are just above the relegation line, having won only one of their last five matches, but they earned four points from their last two, including that valiant draw in Sao Paulo last weekend, so Vagner Mancini, their coach, has every reason to say that he sees “improvement”. Center-back Kanu is unavailable (three yellow cards).
Previous five matches:
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Internacional 0-0
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo 3-1
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo 3-2
America Mineiro vs Sao Paulo 1-3
Corinthians vs Vitoria 0-0
Vitoria vs Chapecoense 1-0
Santos vs Vitoria 5-2
Vitoria vs Internacional 2-3
Botafogo vs Vitoria 1-1
Both teams’ next official game is right after the World Cup finals.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Head to head Stats
Incredibly, Sao Paulo have 10 straight wins at home over Vitória, starting in 2002 (they spent some seasons playing in different categories).
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Prediction
At 1.45, Sao Paulo’s win doesn’t feel worth the risk to me, keeping in mind how Vitória have done in their last two games.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Betting Tips
It’s not much, but my main tip is Vitória’s +1.5 Asian handicap, at 1.57. If they lose, I’m counting on them to make it very difficult to Sao Paulo, and lose by the slightest of margins, one goal. For more than that, I would bet on “under 2.5 goals”, at 1.80, which suits my 1-0 or 1-1 hunch. For much more than that, I would take the risk to bet on Vitória’s double chance, tempted by the 2.75 of a team that has done very-very well in their last two games.