Shanghai Shenhua vs Suwon Bluewings
Competition: AFC Champions League
Date: 13 March 2018
Kick-off: 13:00 CET
The AFC are trying to promote their… main “product” (at club level), their Champions League, but every time I see a refereeing decision like the one that saved Shanghai Shenhua last week at Suwon Bluewings, a non-existent penalty, I feel the AFC are shooting their own leg. Not that you don’t see big refereeing mistakes in Europe or in the Americas, from… Canada to Chile and Argentina, but… in most of the cases, the mistakes in the UEFA CL or the Copa Libertadores are in dubious situations, a close off-side call, a 55-45 penalty. The penalty the referee from Sri Lanka(!) gave Shanghai Shenhua last week, was just… ridiculous, the kind of call you expect from a “referee” whose full-time job is… anything else, and only practices refereeing once a week, only because he was never good enough to be a football player himself. Anyway, my only tip last week was “both teams to score”, and it came good, as the game ended in a 1-1 draw. Over the weekend, Shenhua lost 2-0 to city rivals SIPG. They have one point from two CSL matches. In the AFC CL they have three draws in as many games, making this one against second-placed Suwon some sort of early final for them, no matter how much of a cliché this looks like.
Suwon Bluewings fans were left booing the referee after his final whistle last week, and for good reason. Their team didn’t win, because the Sri Lankan official “invented” a penalty that only Shanghai Shenhua’s coach or president would have given. Suwon were better, but… this is football, “better” doesn’t necessarily get you victories. Despite the draw last week, they remain second in the group table. This game in China seems to be the most difficult of the three remaining. If they manage to leave Shanghai undefeated, they will be huge favourites to qualify, as their next game is at home against Sydney FC, the weakest looking side of the bunch, and last, they will visit Kashima Antlers, when, most probably, the Japanese will have already qualified. They beat Daegu 2-0 away from home last weekend, their first win/points in the K-League after losing on their debut.
Previous five matches:
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shanghai SIPG 0-2
Suwon Bluewings vs Shanghai Shenhua 1-1
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai 1-1
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Shanghai Shenhua 4-1
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sydney FC 2-2
Daegu vs Suwon Bluewings 0-2
Suwon Bluewings vs Shanghai Shenhua 1-1
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonnam Dragons 1-2
Suwon Bluewings vs Kashima Antlers 1-2
Sydney FC vs Suwon Bluewings 0-2
Shanghai Shenhua’s next game is at Guizhou Zhicheng, on Sunday (China Super League). Same day, Suwon Bluewings will be hosting Pohang Steelers (K-League).
Shanghai Shenhua vs Suwon Bluewings: Head to head Stats
Shanghai Shenhua have hosted Suwon Bluewings twice before. They beat them 2-1 in 2009, and lost 3-0 in 2011 (both AFC CL group stage matches).
Shanghai Shenhua vs Suwon Bluewings: Prediction
I was hoping for a “gift”, to see Shanghai Shenhua be considered favourites to win the game, but… no. I expect Suwon to earn at least a draw (that’s why I wanted Shenhua to be considered favourites, so that Suwon’s double chance paid sort of well).
Shanghai Shenhua vs Suwon Bluewings: Betting Tips
Suwon’s double chance pays just 1.36, so we need something else. Their win in “draw no bet” is not particularly tempting either, at 1.62. Shenhua need to win, they should look… prepared to risk to score, but even “both teams to score” pays little, 1.57(!), and “over 2.5 goals” pays just slightly better than this. All things considered, I would bet on Suwon’s win in “draw no bet”, or not at all. I just feel the odds in this game are not worth it. With so many games available, I’d leave this one aside.
More AFC Champions League betting tips and match previews:
- Al Wahda vs Zob Ahan
- Al Rayyan vs Al Hilal
- Esteghlal vs Al Ain
- Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Al Duhail
- Ulsan Hyundai vs Shanghai SIPG
- Melbourne Victory vs Kawasaki Frontale
- Kashima Antlers vs Sydney FC
- Tractor Sazi vs Al Jazira
- Al Wasl vs Persepolis
- Al Sadd vs Nasaf Qarshi
- Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa
- Jeju United vs Guangzhou Evergrande
- Cerezo Osaka vs Buriram United
- Kitchee vs Kashiwa Reysol
- Tianjin Quanjian vs Jeonbuk Motors