Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion
Competition: Paraguay Apertura
Date: 18 February 2018
Kick-off: 23:00 CET
Despite getting humiliated last weekend by Deportivo Capiatá, midweek I backed Sportivo Luqueño to beat Deportivo Cuenca at home, in the Copa Sudamericana, and they delivered, winning 2-0. They scored both goals in the first 35 minutes, looking great. The second half was a different story. Cuenca fought back, missed chances, Sportivo Luqueño backtracked, but what mattered the most when the referee blew his whistle for the last time was that the hosts had won 2-0, a result that makes them big favourites to qualify, ahead of the return leg in Ecuador, next month. As for that 4-1 defeat at Deportivo Capiatá last weekend, it’s a game Sportivo Luqueño can learn from, mostly Bernardo Medina, their goalkeeper who got sent off seeing a second yellow card for a stupid gesture (he implied that the referee had gotten bribed by Capiatá!!), left his team with 10 men when they had closed the gap on Capiatá to 2-1, practically killing their chances of getting at least a point from that match.
“Olimpia and over 2.5 goals”, at 2.50, was my tip last weekend when the Asunción side hosted neighbors General Díaz, and they delivered, winning the game 3-1. They had just gotten eliminated by Junior from the Copa Libertadores, they were desperate to bounce back, they were playing at home against a rather average opponent, so… Just over 30 minutes into the game, Colombian right-back/winger Mauricio Cuero was sent in, expected to boost Olimpia’s attack. Less than 60 seconds later, he committed a penalty(!), giving General Díaz the chance to equalise. The Colombian got redeemed early in the second half, when he scored the goal that put Olimpia 2-1 up. Generally, he was a joy to watch, he is definitely the most… happening player at Olimpia, a guy who, when he gets the ball, you can expect something. He is fast, “explosive”, not all his ideas come good, but he is definitely adding a whole different dimension to Olimpia’s game when he is on the pitch. Olimpia are the only team on six points after the first two game weeks of the Apertura. Experienced striker Roque Santa Cruz got injured in Colombia, and will stay sidelined for at least three weeks.
Previous five matches:
Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Cuenca 2-0
Deportivo Capiata vs Sportivo Luqueno 4-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad 2-2
Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Luqueno 2-4
Sportivo Luqueno vs General Diaz 3-0
Olimpia vs General Diaz 3-1
Junior vs Olimpia 3-1
Independiente CG vs Olimpia 1-2
Olimpia vs Junior 1-0
Olimpia vs Wanderers 2-0
Sportivo Luqueño’s next game is at Independiente Campo Grande next weekend. Olimpia will be hosting Guaraní (both Paraguay Apertura matches).
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion: Head to head Stats
One win for Sportivo Luqueño, two for Olimpia, and two draws, in the last five games between these two in Luque. Only one of those five matches (Sportivo’s win) had more than two goals.
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion: Prediction
I don’t trust Sportivo Luqueño’s second halves, I expect them to drop the ball even if they are 1-0 up by halftime, so… despite some reservations regarding Olimpia as well, I’m backing the visitors to pick up all three points.
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion: Betting Tips
Olimpia’s win pays 1.90, and that’s my only tip. Adding “over 2.5 goals” to Olimpia’s win looks tempting, Sportivo Luqueño conceded twice at home against Libertad, four at Deportivo Capiatá last weekend, allowed many chances to Deportivo Cuenca midweek (despite not conceding), “Olimpia and over 2.5 goals” pays a very good 3.00, but 1.90 is good enough I reckon.
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