AEL Larissa vs AEK Athens
Competition: Greece Cup
Date: 1 March 2018
Kick-off: 18:30 CET
A simple AEL Larissa win last weekend over Platanias was paying something over 1.80, but I took the extra risk to suggest combining it with under 2.5 goals, having a 1-0 or 2-0 hunch. That way, AEL’s win was paying more than 3.00, and that’s what happened, as they beat Platanias 1-0. It was the first game under Dostanic, their new/old coach (he has worked there before). AEL did their… best to gift Platanias a point, they missed big chances, and finally got saved by Deletic in the 69th minute. His goal proved to be the only one in the match, good enough for AEL to claim their first Super League win in two months. They remained 12th, their position in the table didn’t get any better, but they are now nine whole points ahead of 15th-placed Apollon Smyrnis, the first team right below the relegation zone.
Atromitos’ double chance (1.66) and “both teams to score” (2.20) were my two tips on Monday, in AEK’s game in Peristeri, adding that 1-1 felt like the most probable result to me. That’s exactly how the game ended, 1-1, with AEK taking the lead in the second half, but Amr Warda scoring an absolutely spectacular equaliser in the 80th minute. AEK failed to leapfrog PAOK in the Super League table, even though they did close the gap on them to one point. On Tuesday, AEK claimed the right thing to do is stop the championship, and only restart when Olympiakos and PAOK’s cases are decided for good. Both teams, for different reasons, may have points deducted, and AEK say they shouldn’t play another game before everyone knows exactly what happens in the table. They may have a point. They also had six players missing in Tuesday’s training session, some of them are dealing with injuries, and some are just too tired by AEK’s back-to-back matches.
Previous five matches:
AEL Larissa vs Platanias 1-0
AEL Larissa vs Panathinaikos 0-1
PAOK vs AEL Larissa 3-0
AEL Larissa vs PAS Giannina 3-2
AEL Larissa vs Panionios 0-0
Atromitos vs AEK Athens 1-1
Dynamo Kiev vs AEK Athens 0-0
AEK Athens vs Xanthi 4-0
AEK vs Dynamo Kiev 1-1
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis 1-0
AEL’s next game is at Levadiakos, on Sunday. AEK are hosting Panionios, same day (both Greece Super League matches).
AEL Larissa vs AEK Athens: Head to head Stats
The last game between these two in Larissa was a goalless draw, just over a month ago. Before that, AEK had five wins in a row, between 2010 and 2016.
AEL Larissa vs AEK Athens: Prediction
I’m going against the odds, and I’m actually backing AEL to avoid defeat(!), not because I enjoy losing bets, but because I’m counting on AEK’s fatigue to make them settle for a draw.
AEL Larissa vs AEK Athens: Betting Tips
AEL’s double chance pays 2.00. Draw alone, at 3.00, feels… infinitely more probable than a Larissa win, but even 2.00 is good enough, I reckon, to avoid an even bigger risk. “Under 1.5” is at 2.30, and is my riskier tip, suiting my hunch that the game will have no goals.