AEL Larissa vs PAOK
Competition: Greece Super League
Date: 14 April 2019
Kick-off: 18:00 CET
Larissa had stayed undefeated in four matches before visiting Panionios last weekend, but their 1-0 defeat in Nea Smirni got them in trouble; 30 points from 27 matches have them 10th in the table, four points ahead of 13th-placed PAS Giannina, the team that if the season were over today would be going through playoffs to avoid relegation, and five ahead of 16th-placed OFI, the first among the three below the relegation line. Mind you, AEL are visiting AEK next weekend, and their last game of the season, early May, will be against Olympiakos, at home. In other words, the… threat – for them – to finish the season losing their last four matches, all four, is very real. The 30 points they already have may prove enough to finish at least 12th, but… the key word in this sentence is “may”…
This may be THE day for PAOK, the day their fans have been waiting for 34 years now; on 73 points from 27 matches, the Thessaloniki side sit 10 whole points ahead of second-placed Olympiakos, who, though, have a game in hand, the one that got abandoned, against Panathinaikos. For argument’s sake, let’s “give” all three points from that match to Olympiakos, pushing them up to 66. That is seven less than leaders PAOK, with three rounds of matches left to play. So, if PAOK win this game, it’s all over, because even if by Sunday night the gap between them and Olympiakos is at seven points (if the Piraeus side beat Xanthi at home), it will be impossible to cover it in the last two games of the season. The only bad news for PAOK these days was Pedro Henrique’s injury. The Brazilian who opened the scoring last weekend in their 3-0 win at home over Lamia, is not expected to play again this season (he scored against AEK in the Cup final two years ago, and PAOK will, most probably, face AEK again, in a third final in a row, next month).
Previous five matches:
Panionios vs AEL Larissa 1-0
AEL Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis 2-1
PAS Giannina vs AEL Larissa 0-0
AEL Larissa vs Levadiakos 2-0
OFI Crete vs AEL Larissa 0-0
PAOK vs Lamia 3-0
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis 2-0
Xanthi vs PAOK 1-2
Panetolikos vs PAOK 1-2
PAOK vs Atromitos 3-0
Larissa are visiting AEK next weekend. PAOK will be hosting Levadiakos (both Super League matches).
AEL Larissa vs PAOK: Head to head Stats
One win for AEL, three for PAOK, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Larissa.
AEL Larissa vs PAOK: Prediction
PAOK have 24 wins and three draws (no loss!) in the Super League this season, having scored in every single game. I would be… shocked if they lost in Larissa, and very-very surprised if they drew.
AEL Larissa vs PAOK: Betting Tips
Given that a simple PAOK win pays less than 1.50, I would risk with “PAOK and under 3.5 goals”, at 1.97”.