Alianza Lima vs Palmeiras
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 4 May 2018
Kick-off: 02:30 CET
What a horrible group campaign for Alianza Lima… They have two matches left to play, but incredibly, they are already eliminated. Mathematically, they can finish on seven points (they now have one), and draw level with Junior, leaving Boca Juniors on six (these lines were written before Junior’s game against Boca on Wednesday), but they have lost twice to Junior, so finishing in the top two is out of the question. There is a small window of hope, regarding the third spot, which leads to the Copa Sudamericana. They can still finish third, but they need a crazy combination of results. They have been poor in Peru’s championship as well. Their coach, Pablo Bengoechea, said after their 1-0 defeat to Universidad San Martín, “if I’m the problem, I’m going”. He remains Alianza’s coach, but… not necessarily for too long.
Unlike Alianza, Palmeiras have already qualified for the last 16 of the competition. They are on 10 points, and the worst that can happen to them is finish second. Defensive midfielder Felipe Melo is facing a minor injury problem and is unavailable. They have conceded just one goal in four group matches, and they are visiting a team that hasn’t scored any, the only team among all 32 not to have scored a single goal thus far in the group stage. Last weekend they drew 0-0 at home to Chapecoense, picking up their fifth point from three matches in Brazil’s championship. Their coach has taken with him the best players he had at his disposal, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he decides to give game time to players who haven’t played that much thus far. They have already qualified, and on Sunday they are visiting Atlético Paranaense.
Previous five matches:
Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Lima 1-0
Junior vs Alianza Lima 1-0
Alianza Lima vs Sport Rosario 3-1
Alianza Lima vs Junior 0-2
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima 1-0
Palmeiras vs Chapecoense 0-0
Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras 0-2
Palmeiras vs Internacional 1-0
Botafogo vs Palmeiras 1-1
Palmeiras vs Boca Juniors 1-1
Alianza’s next game is at Boca Juniors, in two weeks (Copa Libertadores). Palmeiras are visiting Atlético Paranaense on Sunday (Brazil Série A).
Alianza Lima vs Palmeiras: Head to head Stats
Alianza Lima have hosted Palmeiras once before, in 1979(!). That game ended in a 4-2 Palmeiras triumph.
Alianza Lima vs Palmeiras: Prediction
Palmeiras are considered huge favorites to win the game, but remember, they have already qualified.
Alianza Lima vs Palmeiras: Betting Tips
Alianza haven’t scored a single goal in four group matches. Palmeiras have conceded just one. None of the two teams has a real motive. Under these circumstances, “under 2.5 goals”, at 2.00, feels worth the risk to me.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: