Atletico Goianiense vs Santos
Competition: Brazilian Serie A
Date: 2 July 2017
Kick-off: 00:00 CET
Bottom-of-the-table Atletico Goianiense lost 1-0 at Vasco da Gama last weekend, as predicted here (defeat without scoring, 2.37). It was their third consecutive loss in the championship and eighth in total, they have just six points, the second worst offense in the Brasileirao, third worst defense, statistics that totally justify Atletico’s moves these last days, as they signed not one or two, but three players, defender Marcao, central midfielder Everton Heleno, and attacking midfielder Diego Rosa. One fourth of the Serie A campaign has already passed, it’s obviously not too late for Atletico to… get their act together, but they need to start picking up points more consistently, not… once every five matches.
Santos played at Flamengo on Wednesday, first leg of a Copa do Brasil quarterfinal. A simple win of Flamengo paid 1.75, but I went for 3.60, ‘Flamengo and under 2.5 goals’, and the game ended 2-0 indeed, with Fla scoring their second goal in the 88th minute. Santos have players back. Central midfielder Thiago Maia and Yuri missed the game at Flamengo, but are back at the disposal of coach Levir Culpi. Defensive midfielder Alison and attacking midfielder Serginho are also available (they have not been included in the Copa do Brasil list, so they didn’t travel to Rio de Janeiro for the game versus Flamengo). Santos are still missing several players though. Vecchio, Rodrigão, Ricardo Oliveira, Zeca, Cleber, Luiz Felipe and Gustavo Henrique are all either injured or unfit to play. Plus, right-back Victor Ferraz is about to become father, and was obviously given permission to go be close to his wife. Culpi avoided saying how extensively he will rotate the team, when asked how he intends to manage things, with Wednesday’s Copa Libertadores game at Atletico Paranaense very close.
Atletico Goianiense vs Santos: Head-to-head Stats
Atletico Goianiense and Santos haven’t faced each other since 2012. Just before that, Atletico had two consecutive home wins over their much more famous opponents.
Atletico Goianiense vs Santos: Prediction
Atletico have three consecutive defeats, but all were by 1-0, even at Palmeiras and Vasco, a detail that shows maybe they are not as bad as their position in the table indicates. Santos have back-to-back defeats as well, plus, they are missing several players, plus, they are playing a huge game in a few days, the first leg of a Copa Libertadores last-16 tie against Atletico Paranaense. Everything considered, I’m backing the hosts to surprise people and earn at least a draw.
Atletico Goianiense vs Santos: Tips
‘Atletico or draw’ is at 1.61. ‘Under 2.5 goals’ doesn’t pay much better (1.66). For something much closer to 2.00, I’d go with ‘no’ on ‘both teams to score’. This pays 1.90. Deep down I don’t expect more than just one goal in this game. The risk is much bigger, obviously, but this is why ‘under 1.5 goal’ pays a very good 3.00.