Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 24 August 2019
Kick-off: 16:00 CET
Atlético Mineiro hosted La Equidad on Tuesday, and wanted a “clear” win that would practically guarantee them a spot in the Copa Sudamericana semifinals. In practice, they did everything possible to… get themselves in trouble. Penalty committed super early, 0-1 down in the 7th minute, penalty missed in the 67th minute (with the score at 1-1 and La Equidad playing with 10 men since the 55th minute), final score 2-1, anything but a “clear” victory. Rodrigo Santana has to leave his regulars aside this weekend, “protect” them ahead of the trip to Colombia. He is expected to have Cleiton, Patric, Igor Rabello, Léo Silva, Lucas Hernández, Ramón Martínez, Otero, Nathan, Luan (or Vinícius, or Cazares), Geuvânio and Alerrandro in the starting lineup. Argentinian striker Franco di Santo, signed three weeks ago, should be on the bench, having trained well this last week. Atlético are 5th in the Serie A table, on 27 points, five behind leaders Santos.
Bahia needed all three points when they hosted Goiás last weekend, it was one of those games that they were expected to win, but when you are left with 10 men on the pitch in the 7th minute, you have to… downscale your expectations. Things turned even tougher in the 34th minute, when Goiás took the lead. Bahia avoided defeat, thanks to a goal scored in the 71st minute by Venezuelan Alejandro Guerra. That was his second appearance with Bahia this season, after moving there from Palmeiras, and his first goal. Gilberto, Bahia’s top scorer in 2019 (including their State championship matches), a guy who already has 22 goals to his name this year, faced a last-minute problem last weekend, and couldn’t play against Goiás. He trained on Thursday, Roger Machado included him in the group that flew to Belo Horizonte, but said he would have to wait until the last moment to see if he can include him in the starting lineup. Bahia sit 10th in the table, having four draws and a win in their last five matches.
Previous five matches:
Atletico Mineiro vs La Equidad 2-1
Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro 1-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense 2-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro 2-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo 2-0
Bahia vs Goias 1-1
Palmeiras vs Bahia 2-2
Bahia vs Flamengo 3-0
Chapecoense vs Bahia 0-0
Bahia vs Cruzeiro 0-0
Atlético’s next game is on Tuesday, at La Equidad, in Colombia (Copa Sudamericana quarterfinal, return leg). Bahia are hosting CSA next weekend (Brazil Serie A).
Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Atlético, one for Bahia, and two draws, in the last five games between these two in Porto Alegre.
Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia: Prediction
As previously mentioned, Atlético will play practically exclusively with reserves. This makes me choose Bahia’s double chance over the hosts’ victory.
Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia: Betting Tips
“Draw or Bahia” is at 1.83. For more, I would combine their double chance with “over 1.5”, at 2.80.