Atletico Paranaense vs Santos
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 6 July 2017
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
To lose without scoring, this was my prediction for Atletico Paranaense’s Brasileirao game at Sport Recife last weekend, they lost 1-0, this paid 3.40, but in all fairness, the penalty that the hosts took advantage of to score the only goal in the match in the 76th minute… never happened, the referee got it wrong. Atletico could make six changes in the list they had sent to Conmebol before the start of this season’s Copa Libertadores, but made only four, leaving the last two for next month, when the deadline expires. The most important news these last days was about a… no change. Left winger Felipe Gedoz, Atletico’s top scorer so far in the Libertadores, was expected to leave the team, but Atletico kept him in the list, a sign, according to local media, that the player could be reintegrated into the team, after spending the last weeks marginalized, due to a lack of discipline incident. Do note that the game is held at Vila Capanema, Curitiba’s third biggest stadium, because Atletico’s is used for the FIVB Volleyball World League, and Coritiba turned down (eventually) Atletico’s request to use theirs. They had signed such an agreement back in 2015, Coritiba initially complied with that, but under pressure from their fans, they took their word back, sparking a… war of public statements between officials of both clubs.
Tense days at Santos, as the team have won just one of their last five games in all competitions, they lost 2-0 at Flamengo in the first leg of a Copa do Brasil quarterfinal a week ago, and last weekend they only drew 1-1 at Atletico Goianiense, even though the hosts, bottom of the table in the Brasileirao, were playing with ten men in practically the whole second half. Adding injury to insult, right winger Vitor Bueno got seriously injured and will stay sidelined for months. He has played in most Brasileirao matches so far, at 22 he was showing signs of turning into a key player at Santos, but, sadly for him and the club, his season is pretty much over, already. On the other hand, Santos are one step away from signing Nilmar, a former Brazil international, who, at 32, is returning to his homeland, promising to score many goals for his new team.
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos: Head-to-head Stats
Four wins for Atletico, two draws, and one victory for Santos (less than a month ago, in the Brasileirao), in the seven games between these two in Curitiba since 2010.
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos: Prediction
I’m backing the hosts not to lose, but I don’t trust them enough to win.
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos: Tips
‘Atletico or draw’ is at just 1.40, too low. ‘Under 2.5 goals’ doesn’t pay more than 1.57. I’m going with draw, at 3.10, and to make the risk even more worth it, I’d add ‘under 2.5 goals’, which pushes it up to 3.60.