Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 29 July 2018
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
Atlético Paranaense had won just one game in 100 days(!) before hosting Peñarol midweek, in the Copa Sudamericana. Despite their extremely poor record, I backed them to win (1.80), suggesting their victory combined with “under 2.5 goals” as well (3.00). They did win, 2-0, making a big step towards qualifying for the next round of the competition. It should be mentioned that Atlético were reduced to 10 men right before halftime, but still took the lead in the 60th minute, playing with 10 men. Two minutes later, Peñarol as well lost a player, and Atlético went on to score again in the 80th minute. In the Série A, they are below the relegation line, on just 10 points from 14 matches. Atlético have five players missing, Santos, Thiago Heleno, Lucho González, Guilherme and Bergson, five problems that coach Tiago Nunes needs to solve.
“Funny” how things turn sometimes (often) in football… Something over half an hour into the game midweek, when Vitória hosted Sport Recife, attacker Luan got injured, and Erick was sent in to substitute him. It was he who scored in the 61st minute, what was meant to be the only goal of the match. The 90 minutes were rather… split between the two teams, it’s hard to say that one was better than the other, but at the end of the day, Erick’s goal made all the difference. Big win for the Salvador side, who reached 18 points, two above the relegation line.
Previous five matches:
Atletico Paranaense vs Peñarol 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional 2-2
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense 1-1
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense 2-0
Vitoria vs Sport Recife 1-0
Bahia vs Vitoria 4-1
Vitoria vs Parana 1-0
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria 3-0
Corinthians vs Vitoria 0-0
Atlético’s next game is at Corinthians, next weekend. Vitória will be hosting Cruzeiro (both Brazil Série A matches).
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Atlético, two for Vitória as well, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Curitiba.
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria: Prediction
Atlético just celebrated a… rare victory, but they are without five key players. Vitória will be fine with a draw, but have conceded seven goals in their last two away games. All things considered, I’m backing the visitors to earn a draw, taking Atlético’s absences seriously under consideration. The hosts are… dying for points, but five players missing is just too much for their – not that deep – roster.
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria: Betting Tips
Vitória’s double chance is at 2.10. Draw, at 3.50, feels much more probable than a Vitória victory, but even 2.10 is not bad.