Avai vs Atletico Paranaense
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 26 November 2017
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
Huge, huge win for Avai last weekend, playing at home against Palmeiras. The Florianopolis side looked way more motivated (they had to, they were and remain below the relegation line, and the season is almost over), and took a 2-0 lead in a matter of four minutes (58′-62′). Rather naturally, they focused on their defense after that, and they almost paid for that. Palmeiras closed the gap to one point, and had more chances to equalize and… break Avai’s heart. There are three teams on 39 points, all three right below the relegation line, and Avai are one of those. Among the three, they are the ones with the worst record, not only because of their goal difference (-20), but first and foremost because they have one win less (nine, while the others have 10). This is the first thing that matters, number of wins, not goal difference, so Avai look doomed if it comes down to ties. They need to finish on more points than their competitors, and given that this is their last match of the season at home, it really doesn’t get more final-like than this.
Two goals in a matter of five minutes in the second half (64′-69′) secured all three points for Atletico Paranaense last weekend, at home, against Vasco da Gama. The Curitiba side had first taken the lead in the 15th minute, but less than 100 seconds later they gifted Vasco an equalizer, easily the… funniest/weirdest own goal of the season in Brazil. Wanderson kicked the ball while his goalkeeper had already laid both his hands on it, and somehow the ball went in, leaving both in disbelief. Atletico were better in most of the match, and deservedly picked up all three points, leaving Chapecoense and Sao Paulo behind them in the table. They are 11th, with more than good chances of playing Copa Sudamericana football next season, and still with chances of getting a late ticket to the Copa Libertadores qualifiers.
Previous five matches:
Avai vs Palmeiras 2-1
Cruzeiro vs Avai 2-2
Corinthians vs Avai 1-0
Avai vs Bahia 1-2
Coritiba vs Avai 4-0
Atletico PR vs Vasco da Gama 3-1
Ponte Preta vs Atletico PR 2-1
Botafogo vs Atletico PR 0-1
Atletico PR vs Corinthians 0-1
Cruzeiro vs Atletico PR 1-0
Avai’s next game is at Santos, next Sunday. Same day, Atletico will be hosting Palmeiras (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Avai vs Atletico Paranaense: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Avai and three for Atletico in the last five games between these two in Florianopolis. The last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
Avai vs Atletico Paranaense: Prediction
Avai are given by betting companies a clear advantage to win the game, obviously because they are… dying for points, not because they are a better team (they are not). I don’t think that Atletico Paranaense have a smaller motive, though. They need all three points to boost their chances of playing Copa Libertadores football next season, and… at the end of the day, home or away, regardless of that, they are the better team here, plus, they just played an awesome game against Vasco. All things considered, I’m backing Atletico to get at least a draw.
Avai vs Atletico Paranaense: Betting Tips
Atletico’s double chance pays 1.67. Their win in “draw no bet” is at 2.35 betting odds.
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