BATE vs Qarabag
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: 14 August 2018
Kick-off: 19:00 CET
BATE’s double chance (1.72), “under 2.5 goals” (1.47), and last but not least, “under 1.5” (2.50) were my three tips last week when the team from Belarus visited Qarabag, mentioning that I had a 0-0 or 0-1 hunch. BATE “delivered”, winning the game 1-0. Did they deserve that? Numbers say, most probably, not, but… they did. They scored their goal in the 36th minute, which obliged Qarabag to take control, with BATE looking perfectly fine by staying back, protecting their goal, taking few risks to score a second one themselves. If they hadn’t scored in the first half, if the game had stayed at 0-0 until much later, numbers could be telling a different story. No game for them over the weekend.
Qarabag are with their back against the wall, after losing at home last week. As previously mentioned, numbers say they deserved at least a draw. They finished the match on 15 attempts (BATE had only five), but only four of those on target. They won seven corners (BATE only two). Then again, do keep in mind that Qarabag faced BATE having already played four qualifying matches this summer; they scored one goal at Olimpija, no goal back home in the return leg, no goal at Kukesi, and finally, three against the Albanian side back home, the first two from the penalty spot, and the third one almost in added time, with Kukesi playing with 10 men after going 1-0 down. My point is, there is a reason Qarabag don’t score, it’s not mere coincidence/bad luck they didn’t score last week.
Previous five matches:
Qarabag vs BATE 0-1
HJK vs BATE 1-2
BATE vs HJK 0-0
BATE vs Minsk 2-0
Smolevichy-STI vs BATE 2-3
Qarabag vs BATE 0-1
Qarabag vs Kukesi 3-0
Kukesi vs Qarabag 0-0
Qarabag vs Olimpija 0-0
Olimpija vs Qarabag 0-1
BATE’s next scheduled game is on August 25, at home, versus Vitebsk (Belarus championship). Qarabag are visiting Səbail on Friday (Azerbaijan championship).
BATE vs Qarabag: Head to head Stats
Last week’s game was the first ever between these two.
BATE vs Qarabag: Prediction
BATE are considered favorites to win, but they don’t need to, and that deters me from betting on their victory, at 2.00.
BATE vs Qarabag: Betting Tips
“Under 2.5 goals” is at just 1.53. “No” on “both teams to score” is at 1.61. Neither of the two is particularly tempting (odds-wise). I would risk with “under 1.5”, at 2.62, and with “BATE to keep a clean sheet” (2.10).