Bayern Munich vs Benfica
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: 27 November 2018
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
Bayern Munich were 2-0 and 3-1 up on Saturday at home against Fortuna Dusseldorf, they scored their third goal in the 58th minute, they were winning 3-1 until the 77th, but incredibly, they finished the game with just one point, conceding twice more in the last 15 minutes. Mind you, Fortuna are second-to-last(!) in the Bundesliga table. Bayern are left nine whole points behind leaders Borussia Dortmund, and actually, if the season were over today, they wouldn’t even be earning a Champions League ticket(!). Things are very different in their CL group; three wins and a draw have them on 10 points from four matches. To guarantee their spot in the last-16 mathematically, they need a point in this game. Even if they lose, as long as it’s by one goal, they still secure a spot in the group’s top-2.
It feels like the third spot is Benfica’s… ceiling in this group. They are third, on four points behind second-placed Ajax, whom they failed to beat in two games. On the other hand, AEK are four points below them, and they still have to face them at home. The way things are, Benfica need a small miracle to finish in the top-2, but at least they have a place in the Europa League last-32 almost guaranteed. Their last game was on Thursday, a Portugal Cup 2-1 win over Arouca. They are fourth(!) in their championship, four points behind leaders Porto.
Previous five matches:
Bayern Munich vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 3-3
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich 3-2
Bayern Munich vs AEK Athens 2-0
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg 1-1
Rödinghausen vs Bayern Munich 1-2
Benfica vs Arouca 2-1
Tondela vs Benfica 1-3
Benfica vs Ajax 1-1
Benfica vs Moreirense 1-3
Belenenses vs Benfica 2-0
Bayern are visiting Werder Bremen on Saturday (Germany Bundesliga). Same day, Benfica will be hosting Feirense (Portugal championship).
Bayern Munich vs Benfica: Head to head Stats
Bayern have hosted Benfica four times in the past, and have won all four matches, by a total score of 14-3(!).
Bayern Munich vs Benfica: Prediction
Bayern have been having a very poor season in the Bundesliga, but at least in the Champions League they have been delivering almost without exception. I doubt they’ll drop the ball against Benfica at home.
Bayern Munich vs Benfica: Betting Tips
A simple Bayern win pays just 1.28. I like the chances of “both teams to score”, at 1.90, having seen Bayern concede in most of their recent matches. That’s my main tip. “Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score” is at 2.20.