Bayern Munich vs Mainz
Competition: Germany Bundesliga
Date: 17 March 2019
Kick-off: 18:00 CET
As predicted here, Bayern Munich got eliminated by Liverpool midweek, failing to reach the Champions League quarterfinals. They lost 1-3, getting outplayed by a team that definitely deserved the ticket to the next round. Joshua Kimmich was unavailable on Wednesday (suspended), but he’s definitely back into the starting lineup this weekend. The other 10 should be Neuer, Süle, Hummels, Rafinha, Goretzka, Thiago, Gnabry, James, Coman and Lewandowski. Bayern have two confirmed absentees, Robben and Tolisso. The day before the game, Alaba was considered doubtful, after picking up a knock in the game versus Liverpool. As of last week, Bayern are first in the table, level on points with Borussia Dortmund, but with a better goal difference, thanks to their 6-0 home party against Wolfsburg.
Five losses in their last six games have left Mainz in an… awkward position; on 30 points from 25 matches, they don’t worry about getting relegated (sitting 13th in the table), but they are far below the top six teams, not really hoping for a Europa League ticket. Last weekend they lost 0-1 to Gladbach, at home, their second defeat in their last three matches as hosts. If there are no late surprises, they will start the game with Müller, Brosinski, Bell, Niakhite, Martin, Gbamin, Kunde, Latza, Boetius, Quaison and Onisiwo. Coach Sandro Schwarz cannot count on Abbas, Adler, Holtmann and Mwene. The day before the game, Berggreen and Maxim were considered doubtful. The latter fell ill during the week and missed some training sessions.
Previous five matches:
Bayern Munich vs Liverpool 1-3
Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg 6-0
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayern Munich 1-5
Bayern Munich vs Hertha Berlin 1-0
Liverpool vs Bayern Munich 0-0
Mainz vs Borussia Monchengladbach 0-1
Hertha Berlin vs Mainz 2-1
Mainz vs Schalke 3-0
Wolfsburg vs Mainz 3-0
Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen 1-5
Bayern’s next game is at Freiburg, in two weeks. Mainz will be visiting Werder Bremen after the international break (both Bundesliga matches).
Bayern Munich vs Mainz: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Bayern, one for Mainz, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Munich.
Bayern Munich vs Mainz: Prediction
I strongly expect Bayern not just to win, but to do so comfortably, partly to… entertain the bad impressions left midweek, and partly because they obviously want to remain first, having a better goal difference than Borussia Dortmund (these lines were written before Dortmund’s Saturday game at Hertha Berlin).
Bayern Munich vs Mainz: Betting Tips
Given that a simple Bayern win pays close to nothing, my main choice is “Bayern and over 3.5 goals”, at 1.93, even though, deep down, I would risk with “Bayern and over 4.5 goals”, at 2.88.