Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Competition: Germany Bundesliga
Date: 10 November 2018
Kick-off: 18:30 CET
“Under 2.5 goals” (1.90), and Atlético Madrid’s win combined with “under 2.5 goals” (4.00) were my two tips the other day, when Borussia Dortmund traveled to Spain to face Diego Simeone’s team in the Champions League. I had a 1-0 hunch, and Dortmund ended up losing 2-0, conceding the second goal in the 80th minute. It was their first defeat in 16 official matches this season, Champions League, Bundesliga, and DFB Pokal combined. They will still qualify for the last 16 of the Champions League though, their defeat in Madrid wasn’t… the end of the world for them. Good news for Dortmund was that they returned home from Spain without new injury problems. They are expected to start with Bürki, Piszczek, Akanji, Zagadou, Hakimi, Witsel, Delaney, Sancho, Reus, Bruun Larsen and Alcacer. Lucien Favre cannot count on injured left-back Marcel Schmelzer. Borussia are leading in the Bundesliga, on 24 points, four more than Gladbach and Bayern Munich.
Seeing Bayern’s win over AEK Athens midweek pay very little, even when combined with a clean sheet, I risked with their victory combined with “under 3.5 goals”. Like that, it was at 2.10, decent, and turned out, Bayern were even less productive than what I expected, scoring “just” two goals. Right-back Joshua Kimmich had said before kick-off that they were after an “emphatic” win, right before visiting Dortmund, but… that 2-0 wasn’t that bad either. James Rodríguez didn’t play midweek, but is expected to start against Borussia. Neuer, Kimmich, Süle, Hummels, Alaba, Martinez, Robben, Goretzka, James, Gnabry and Lewandowski should be the first 11. Robben was expected to pass some late tests, to make sure he’s really fit to play. Niko Kovac doesn’t have injured Thiago, Coman, and Tolisso at his disposal.
Previous five matches:
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund 2-0
Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund 0-1
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin 3-2
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha Berlin 2-2
Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid 4-0
Bayern Munich vs AEK Athens 2-0
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg 1-1
Rödinghausen vs Bayern Munich 1-2
Mainz vs Bayern Munich 1-2
AEK Athens vs Bayern Munich 0-2
Dortmund’s next game is at Mainz, in two weeks. Bayern will be hosting Fortuna Dusseldorf after the international break (both Bundesliga matches).
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Head to head Stats
One win for Borussia, two for Bayern, and two draws, in the last five games between these two in Dortmund.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Prediction
Bayern are considered favorites to win the game, but personally I have little doubt backing the hosts to earn at least a draw. Deep down, I see Dortmund earn all three points.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Betting Tips
Borussia’s win in “draw no bet” is at 2.25, with their double chance at 1.72. I expect goals, but with Borussia’s double chance and win in “draw no bet” paying well enough, I reckon, I prefer to avoid risking with number of goals.