Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Greece
Competition: Euro 2020 qualifiers
Date: 26 March 2019
Kick-off: 20:45 CET
Bosnia and Herzegovina started their qualifying campaign earning early their first three points, as expected and predicted here. They beat Armenia 2-1, conceding that goal in the third minute of added time, from the penalty spot (sending to the dustbin my “BiH to win and keep a clean sheet” tip). Edin Džeko played his 100th game for his national team, he was given a special commemorative jersey before kickoff (with the number “100” on the back), he didn’t score on Saturday, but he played his part in having BiH 2-0 up by the 80th minute (it took them time to score that second goal). They finished the game on 19 attempts, six of those on target, six corners won, and 65% ball possession, with Armenia’s numbers nowhere near those of BiH. All in all it was a totally deserved victory.
“Greece and under 3.5 goals pays 1.70. If they had any other coach (of the last 15 years), my tip would be under 2.5, but with Anastasiadis at the helm, I’m giving them a bit more credit (to maybe score a rare third goal)”. This is what you read here before Greece’s Saturday match in Liechtenstein. The Greeks won 0-2, didn’t score that “rare third goal” after all, but mind you, they finished the game on 31 attempts (the hosts had just three), missing good-good chances to score more than twice. If you are thinking, “chill. They were playing against Liechtenstein, that 31 is not that ‘wow’”, you are only partly right; yes, it was “just Lichtenstein”, but in the last 15 years that Greece managed to make a name for themselves, playing in World Cup finals, Euro finals, even winning that – still hard to believe – Euro title in 2004, they hardly ever reached that number, even against teams like… Gibraltar. Especially in the second half in Vaduz, having taken the lead in the first half’s added time, they were really good, focused defensively, and pushing for more goals until deep into added time. Only bad – for them – thing was, striker Kostas Mitroglou felt unwell around the 20th minute, had to get substituted, and according to reports, he won’t play against BiH.
Previous five matches:
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Armenia 2-1
Spain vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-0
Austria vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-0
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland 2-0
Turkey vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-0
Liechtenstein vs Greece 0-2
Greece vs Estonia 0-1
Greece vs Finland 1-0
Finland vs Greece 2-0
Greece vs Hungary 1-0
BiH’ next game is in Finland, in June. Greece will be hosting Italy (both Euro 2020 qualifying matches).
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Greece: Head to head Stats
BiH have hosted Greece five times in the past, and have beaten them just once, in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers. Two matches ended in a draw, and Greece won the other two. Total goals, 3-6.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Greece: Prediction
My first thought is, “this is BiH’s game”. Right after that though, I think, “they have hosted Greece five times, and have beaten them only once. They have played against each other a total of nine times, and BiH have won just once, and that was in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, when BiH played their best football probably since they started existing as a separate country and a national team”. Only the best BiH team of the last 35 years managed to beat Greece, and today’s team is just not as good as the 2012-2013 one, I reckon. Excruciatingly long intro just to write that all things considered, I would risk with Greece’s double chance, which pays better than BiH’s win.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Greece: Betting Tips
Greece’s double chance is my main tip, at 2.05. Combined with “under 2.5 goals” it pays 2.75.