Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 11 November 2017
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
Botafogo’s double chance (1.75) and their win in “draw no bet” (2.60) were the suggestions here when Fogao visited Sport Recife midweek. The Rio de Janeiro side won the game 2-1. Bruno Silva put pressure on Sport’s goalkeeper and forced him to make an unforgivable mistake, which he took perfect advantage of in the 15th minute, opening the scoring for Botafogo, with his sixth goal of the season. Four minutes later, Marcos Vinicius made it 2-0 (fifth goal for him in this Serie A campaign), a lead that Botafogo protected rather easily until the final whistle. Sport got one goal back in the 86th minute, but… that was it, they didn’t really threaten Botafogo after that. Jair Ventura’s team had just one win in their last five matches before traveling to Recife (which didn’t deter me from backing them to get a positive result there), and are now sitting 5th in the table, three points behind fourth-placed Palmeiras. Even fifth will be enough to give them a direct ticket to next season’s Copa Libertadores group stage, if Gremio beat Lanus in this season’s Libertadores final.
“Under 1.5” (2.70) was the riskier tip here midweek, when Atletico Paranaense hosted Corinthians. The game had just one goal, 13 minutes from time, but truth is, it came from the team I didn’t really expect (Corinthians), depriving Atletico of at least a point, which was the absolute minimum they deserved, given how both teams played in the entire 90 minutes. Things would have gone very differently if Felipe Gedoz’s free-kick had gone in (instead of on the post) in the first half, and especially if Nikão had taken his penalty better in the 33rd minute. His execution was poor, Corinthians’ goalkeeper denied the Atletico player, but even so, the hosts had more chances to take the lead in the second half. They missed them all, and 13 minutes from time they paid for that, conceding the only goal of the match. Atletico are at the very edge of the positions that lead to next season’s Copa Sudamericana, having lost ground the last three game weeks, picking up just one point out of a possible nine.
Previous five matches:
Sport Recife vs Botafogo 1-2
Botafogo vs Fluminense 1-2
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo 0-0
Botafogo vs Corinthians 2-1
Avai vs Botafogo 1-1
Atletico PR vs Corinthians 0-1
Cruzeiro vs Atletico PR 1-0
Atletico PR vs Chapecoense 0-0
Atletico PR vs Sport Recife 2-1
Vitoria vs Atletico PR 2-3
Botafogo’s next game is on Thursday, again at home, versus Atletico Goianiense. A day earlier, Atletico will be visiting Ponte Preta (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Botafogo, one for Atletico, and one draw, in the last five games between these two in Rio de Janeiro. Two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: Prediction
I’m leaving winners and losers aside, I’m going with goals instead, not totally trusting Botafogo to pick up all three points.
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: Betting Tips
“Both teams to score” is my main tip, at 2.00 betting odds. “Over 2.5 goals” pays 2.20 (Botafogo’s last four home games have had at least three goals). If I went for Fogao’s win, I would make the risk really worth it by combining “over 2.5”, in which case Botafogo’s win pays 3.25 (instead of 1.83).
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