Botafogo vs Coritiba
Competition: Brazilian Serie A
Date: 11 June 2017
Kick-off: 16:00 CET
Botafogo were seconds away from earning a point at Santos midweek, but a Victor Ferraz goal in added time gave the hosts a 1-0 win (much to my displeasure, since I had predicted ‘draw or Botafogo’, at 2.25). The Rio de Janeiro side has seven points in five matches, but have scored just one goal in their last three games (against Sport Recife, in a Copa do Brasil return leg). Coach Jair Ventura said in a Press conference on Friday that Coritiba have an impressive roster, good enough to lead the Parana team to a great Serie A season. As for his own team, he lamented not having several players at his disposal, but on the other hand, looked satisfied that no matter who plays, the team look ‘obedient’, as he called them, sticking to his tactics. Midfielder Camilo, who has already played in three games this season, attacker Guilherme, also present in three games so far, defender Victor Luis (four caps up to now), another defender, Luis Ricardo, and midfielder Leandrinho, are all ruled out for various reasons. Argentine midfielder Montillo did play against Santos, it was his first game in this season’s Serie A, but his presence in the lineup against Coritiba, is, according to reports, anything but guaranteed.
Midweek, I backed Coritiba to beat Palmeiras at home, and keep a clean sheet, at 4.75. They took the lead early in the second half, and they protected it until the final whistle. Another 1-0 win for the Parana team, their third consecutive, which pushed them second in the table, just one point behind leaders Corinthians. It should be noted though that the only time they played against a ‘decent’ rival away from home since the start of this Serie A season, Santos, three weeks ago, they lost, conceding in the first ten minutes, and failing to find answers later on. It’s interesting that Coritiba have scored their last five goals between the 51st and the 72nd minute (of four games), which gives you an idea which is their… strongest period to send the ball in. I repeat though, the only time they played against an above average opponent on the road, they looked ‘blocked’, offensively.
Botafogo vs Coritiba: Head-to-head Stats
Botafogo have beaten Coritiba in four of the last five games they’ve hosted them, the Parana team have only managed a draw since 2007, but that was last time they traveled to Botafogo, last October.
Botafogo vs Coritiba: Prediction
Botafogo are considered clear favorites to win, but their bad scoring record in their last five games makes me extra skeptical. They have scored just two goals in five matches the last two weeks, and, they are playing against a team that have kept three consecutive clean sheets. Botafogo have been very good defensively as well, so I’m led to expect a game with no more than two goals.
Botafogo vs Coritiba: Tips
Regretfully, ‘under 2.5 goals’ pays just 1.57. For something closer to 2.00, I’m going with ‘draw or Coritiba’, which is at 1.85. A much bigger risk is to bet on a straight draw, at 3.20, and an even bigger risk (but not that bigger) is to put your money on ‘draw and under 2.5’.