Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 14 September 2018
Kick-off: 01:00 CET
Things are… critical at Chapecoense. How critical? Their president, Maninho, told reporters that “no change will be made before the game against Atlético Paranaense”, implying that things could change right after the final whistle. That was his answer when asked if Guto Ferreira, the coach, is at risk of losing his job. Chape lost 2-0 to Flamengo in Rio de Janeiro last weekend, their fifth defeat in their last six games, Série A and Copa do Brasil combined. They are second-to-last in the championship table, two points behind Vasco da Gama, the first team right above the relegation line. They have three games in a row at home, this one, and then against Internacional and Fluminense, before visiting Ceará, another team fighting to avoid relegation. Things look… simple; if they beat Atlético, Guto Ferreira stays. If not, he’s, most probably, gone.
Atlético Parananse’s 3-1 defeat to Atlético Mineiro on Monday was a… disaster; they lost not only the game, but also three players who can’t appear against Chapecoense. Jonathan and Lucho González received their third yellow card of the season (the latter was lucky not to get sent-off), and Nikão was… stupid enough to commit a ridiculous foul in the center of the field, right in front of the referee, late in the match, “deserving” a direct red card. That was Atlético’s second defeat in a row, after that 2-0 at Palmeiras five days earlier. Truth is, in both games, they deserved better, and especially on Monday, in Belo Horizonte, they took the lead, and were the far better team after getting equalized. They missed good chances to take the lead again, and when Atlético Mineiro made it 2-1, their goal was totally against the run of play.
Previous five matches:
Flamengo vs Chapecoense 2-0
Parana vs Chapecoense 1-1
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras 1-2
Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense 3-1
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense 2-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense 3-1
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense 2-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia 2-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio 2-1
Chape’s next game is on Monday, again at home, versus Internacional. Atlético are hosting Fluminense on Sunday (both Série A matches).
Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense: Head to head Stats
The last four games between these two in Chapecó have ended in a draw. Before that, Chape had beaten Atlético 3-0, in 2014, their first season in the Série A.
Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense: Prediction
Chape are considered relatively clear favorites to win the game, but they have won just one of their last 12 Série A matches, and are hosting a team that may have lost their last two, but playing away from home against top-5 teams, and playing well in both matches. On the other hand, Atlético played on Monday, and Chape played on Saturday. Plus, Atlético lost three key players on Monday. All things considered, I’m leaving my reservations aside, and I’m backing Chapecoense to win this “do or die” (for them) game.
Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense: Betting Tips
Chape’s win is at 2.15, my main tip, as their double chance pays very little, just 1.28. I expect their… desperation to lead them to outdo themselves, against a tired rival.