Chapecoense vs Botafogo
Competition: Brazilian Serie A
Date: 18 June 2017
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
I had my doubts about Chapecoense in their home game against Vasco the other day, so instead of betting on a win of theirs, I went with ‘over 2.5 goals’, at 2.07. It wasn’t too much, but it came good, rather easily, since the game was at 2-1 fifteen minutes into the second half. That was the final score as well. Chape bounced back from two consecutive defeats, showing weaknesses again, but deep down, it’s the points that matter, and they picked up all three. Chapecoense have the third best scoring record in the championship so far, but also one of the worst defensive records. How come? Their coach, Vagner Mancini, told reporters a couple of days ago that “the best defence is offence. If you score a goal, this means your opponent needs two to beat you”. This gives you a good idea about his… philosophy. Right winger Rossi is unavailable, having seen three yellow cards already. He has played in all games so far, scoring one goal. Left-back Reinaldo was substituted against Vasco due to some muscular problem, but Mancini said he is ok to play.
Botafogo drew (as predicted here, it paid 3.00) at Vitoria, losing though a golden chance to pick up all three points. They were 2-0 up at halftime, and they should have done a better job protecting their lead in the second part. They didn’t. Final score, 2-2(!). There were conflicting reports 24 hours before kick-off regarding Argentine attacking midfielder Walter Montillo. Some reports had him in the starting lineup, some on the bench. Coach Jair Ventura kind of… confused reporters in the last training session before the match. Special occasion for two Botafogo players, Bruno Silva and Camilo. They used to play for Chapecoense, and this is the first time they are visiting their former home after the tragedy that hit Chape, Brazilian football, football in general, let alone dozens of families who lost loved ones in the plane crash in Colombia late last year.
Chapecoense vs Botafogo: Head-to-head Stats
Chape have two wins in their two home games versus Botafogo since 2014.
Chapecoense vs Botafogo: Prediction
Chape did beat Vasco, but I still find it hard to trust them enough to win. I’m doing the same I did in their previous game, I’m leaving winners and losers aside, I’m going with goals, which to me feels like a much smaller risk, but still paying rather well.
Chapecoense vs Botafogo: Tips
‘Over 2.5 goals’ pays a very good, I reckon, 2.30. Botafogo’s last two games had eight goals. Chapecoense’s games in general are… crazy. Compared to the 1.85 Chape’s win pays, I feel this 2.30 is a bargain.