Chapecoense vs Nacional
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 1 February 2018
Kick-off: 00:45 CET
There are good and bad news at Chapecoense; good news is that in four Catarinense championship matches in January, they kept four clean sheets, even against more than just “decent” teams. Bad news is that they seem to be struggling offensively, scoring just enough to win their games (or not lose, as in the case of that 0-0 at Criciúma). The really bad news though is that defensive midfielder Moisés Ribeiro got injured and is definitely missing this game, the third regular of Gilson Kleina’s team that is unavailable. Chape’s coach was already missing Argentine central midfielder Héctor Canteros, as well as left winger Arthur Caike. Under “normal” circumstances, all three would start the first leg against Nacional, but instead, Gilson Kleina needs to… improvise. On the other hand, Chape just signed two players, left winger Vinícius and Paraguayan centre-back Nery Bareiro. Both are eligible to play, but… it’s up to their coach to decide if they should be… thrown in, given how crucial this match is.
Chapecoense have problems with players missing, but Nacional are not exactly problem-free either. Their coach, Alexander “Cacique” Medina doesn’t have Diego Polenta and Sebastián Rodríguez at his disposal. Both are suspended, and especially Polenta’s absence is bad news for the Montevideo side, as he is their captain, despite his relatively young age (25), and a key figure in the squad. Medina is expected (by Uruguayan media) to make a good number of… internal changes, using, for example, Tabaré Viudez in a more central role, having him more involved in… creating game, rather than waiting for others to push the ball forward, and “feed” him closer to Chape’s box. It will be very interesting to see how Medina’s choices go. Last Friday, in their only official match since early December, Nacional lost 3-1 to Peñarol in Uruguay’s Super Cup, a… lousy way to start the new season.
Previous five matches:
Chapecoense vs Joinville 1-0
Criciúma vs Chapecoense 0-0
Chapecoense Internacional SC 2-0
Concórdia vs Chapecoense 0-1
Chapecoense vs Coritiba 2-1
Nacional vs Peñarol 1-3
Sud América vs Nacional 3-2
Nacional vs Defensor Sporting 1-1
Rampla Juniors vs Nacional 0-2
Nacional vs Fénix 1-0
Chapecoense are visiting Hercílio Luz on Sunday (Catarinense championship). Nacional’s next game is the return leg at home against Chape, next week.
Chapecoense vs Nacional: Head to head Stats
Chapecoense hosted Nacional in Copa Libertadores’ group stage last season. That game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Chapecoense vs Nacional: Prediction
Chapecoense are considered favourites to win, and I agree with that. They have looked impressively solid defensively in their January matches, and judging by what Uruguayan websites and newspapers write about Nacional coach’s internal changes, I’m left with the impression that scoring in Chapeco is not his priority.
Chapecoense vs Nacional: Betting Tips
Chape’s win pays 1.95. I expect them to score up to two goals (most probably just one), and not concede, so for much-much more than 1.95, I would risk with “Chapecoense and under 2.5 goals”, which pays an excellent 3.75.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: