Coritiba vs Flamengo
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 17 November 2017
Kick-off: 00:00 CET
Coritiba had back-to-back home wins before hosting Ponte Preta last weekend, generally they were one of the best-performing teams in the Serie A the last weeks, but I didn’t trust them to keep a clean sheet, and the goal they did concede cost them two precious points. They were not just the better team on the pitch in the first half, they were practically the… only team, but they failed to take the lead. Somehow, they got cornered by Ponte at the start of the second half, and in the 65th minute they went 1-0 down. Thankfully for them, they replied in less than 60 seconds, scoring their luckiest goal of the season. Yan got his name on the scoresheet because the ball got deflected off him as a Ponte defender cleared it, and that goal was meant to be the last of the match, as both teams missed decent chances in the last half hour to grab all three points. Coritiba are sitting 15th in the table, four points above Sport Recife and Ponte Preta, the first teams right below the relegation line.
Losing 2-0 to Palmeiras was a bit harsh to Flamengo, they deserved a goal, not a point though, not the way they played. They lacked… spark, and maybe most of all they lacked hunger, thirst, determination, call it any way you want, to get something from that game. Putting it in different words, they looked less motivated than their hosts, and it was no wonder they lost the game. I repeat, a goal for them would have been fair, but nothing more than that. If the season were over today, Flamengo would have to play qualifiers next season, hoping to get a ticket to the Copa Libertadores group stage. They do have real chances of avoiding the risky qualifiers though. First, they can win the Copa Sudamericana this season (they are in the semifinals). If they do, a spot in the Libertadores groups comes as a bonus. Then, they can count on Gremio to win the Libertadores this season, beating Lanus in the double final. This would open another spot for a Serie A team. Flamengo would need to leave behind them Botafogo though, in that case. Either way, the situation in the table remains super… confusing and open to dramatic changes. The most important of all for Flamengo is that they depend on themselves, at least in the Sudamericana.
Previous five matches:
Coritiba vs Ponte Preta 1-1
Fluminense vs Coritiba 2-2
Coritiba vs Avai 4-0
Sport Recife vs Coritiba 3-4
Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba 1-1
Palmeiras vs Flamengo 2-0
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro 2-0
Gremio vs Flamengo 3-1
Flamengo vs Fluminense 3-3
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama 0-0
Coritiba’s next game is on Sunday, at Atletico Mineiro. Same day, Flamengo will be hosting Corinthians (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Coritiba vs Flamengo: Head to head Stats
Four wins for Flamengo(!) and just one for Coritiba, no draws, in the last five games between these two in Curitiba. Interestingly, only Coritiba’s win (3-0) went over 2.5 goals.
Coritiba vs Flamengo: Prediction
Coritiba have stayed undefeated in their last six matches, and I seriously-seriously doubt they will throw that good run to the garbage against this Flamengo, the Flamengo of one win in their last five matches in all competitions.
Coritiba vs Flamengo: Betting Tips
Coritiba’s double chance pays 1.45, obviously not that much, but a bet that feels – at least to me – very-very hard to go wrong. Coritiba’s win in “draw no bet” is at 1.80 betting odds. Actually, keeping in mind how bad Flamengo have been away from home for weeks and weeks now (seven losses and one win in their last eight matches), and how good Coritiba have been looking lately, it may be worth risking with the hosts’ win without the safety net of “draw no bet”. It pays a tempting 2.50.
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