Cruzeiro vs Avai
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 16 November 2017
Kick-off: 00:45 CET
Every game lasts 90-95 minutes, but it’s relatively safe to claim that the one between Cruzeiro and Fluminense last weekend, in Belo Horizonte, was decided in less than 60 seconds, early in the second half. With the score at 1-1, Marlon received a second yellow card (correctly), leaving Fluminense with a man less. Foul, cross, goal, 2-1, and just like that, Cruzeiro had the three points almost secured, as they were leading 2-1, at home, playing with an extra man. They showed little mercy in the remainder of the match, threatening in almost every counterattack of theirs, missing two big chances, and scoring a third goal with Thiago Neves (who hardly celebrated it, out of respect to Fluminense, whose jersey he has worn in the past). Cruzeiro are now 5th in the table, but as I keep writing for weeks now, their final position won’t really change anything, as they have already secured a spot in next season’s Copa Libertadores group stage, having won the Copa do Brasil.
Avai should be flattered to have lost “just” 1-0 at Corinthians last weekend. I didn’t expect them to score, “under 2.5 goals” (at 2.00 betting odds), was one of the two suggestions here, but I did expect them to still be drawing to Corinthians by halftime (which they did), having “draw-Corinthians” for “halftime/full time” (3.50) as my riskier tip. Avai conceded in the 49th minute, and the game was practically over. They had one “something like” shot on goal in the first half (seconds before the final whistle), and had just one more in the second half, looking almost totally harmless offensively. They now have three losses in a row, just one point from their last four matches, and they are sitting penultimate in the table, four points behind Vitoria, the first team right above the relegation line.
Previous five matches:
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 3-1
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Atletico PR 1-0
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 2-2
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro 1-3
Corinthians vs Avai 1-0
Avai vs Bahia 1-2
Coritiba vs Avai 4-0
Avai vs Gremio 2-2
Ponte Preta vs Avai 1-2
Cruzeiro’s next game is on Sunday, at Vitoria. A day later, Avai will be hosting Palmeiras (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Cruzeiro vs Avai: Head to head Stats
Cruzeiro have hosted Avai only four times the last 10 years, beating them twice, and drawing as many times. Two of those four matches went over 2.5 goals.
Cruzeiro vs Avai: Prediction
I will definitely be surprised if Cruzeiro fail to win this game, despite the fact that they have very little motive, unlike their visitors who are dying to get not just “something”, but all three points, if possible.
Cruzeiro vs Avai: Betting Tips
A simple Cruzeiro win pays just 1.35. For much more than that, I would risk with “over 2.5 goals”, at 2.20 betting odds, mostly because Cruzeiro are… carefree, and Avai should take major risks to score the goals they’ll need to get a positive result. “Cruzeiro and over 2.5 goals” pays even better than 2.20, obviously.
More Brazil Serie A betting tips and match previews: