Estonia vs Finland
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Date: 12 October 2018
Kick-off: 20:45 CET
Estonia conceded in the 14th minute at home against Greece on their Nations League debut, in the 12th minute in Helsinki three days later, and both times they failed to respond, losing both games by the same score, 1-0. Generally, they’ve scored one goal in their last four matches, and that was a very late one, against Morocco, while already losing 3-0. As for clean sheets, they have kept one in their last six matches, against Lithuania, in May. Numbers “talk” loudly in their case, it costs them to score, and it costs them even more to keep a clean sheet. No point for them in two matches in the group. A realistic target is to not finish their Nations League group campaign without a point.
Finland’s… story thus far in this group has been exactly the opposite; they took the lead early, in the 7th minute, against Hungary, they did the same against Estonia three days later, in the 12th minute, and both times they protected that lead to win 1-0. Interestingly, Pukki was the scorer of both goals. They are at the top of the group table, on six points from two matches, but… two home matches, and one of those was versus Estonia, a team tipped to lose all six games. In other words, this one, in Tallinn, is a key match for the Finns. If they drop points, despite beating Hungary in their first game, they’ll see their chances of finishing first in the group get diminished.
Previous five matches:
Finland vs Estonia 1-0
Estonia vs Greece 0-1
Estonia vs Morocco 1-3
Latvia vs Estonia 1-0
Estonia vs Lithuania 1-0
Finland vs Estonia 1-0
Finland vs Hungary 1-0
Finland vs Belarus 2-0
Romania vs Finland 2-0
Finland vs Malta 5-0
Estonia’s next game is on Monday, again at home, versus Hungary. Same day, Finland will be hosting Greece (both Nations League matches).
Estonia vs Finland: Head to head Stats
Estonia have hosted Finland 14 times before, and things between them are even. Five wins for the hosts, five for the visitors as well, and four draws. Total goals, 19-25 for the Finns.
Estonia vs Finland: Prediction
The Finns are considered favorites to win the game, but I’m going against the odds, backing the hosts to earn their first, and probably last, point in the group.
Estonia vs Finland: Betting Tips
Estonia’s double chance is at 1.67. Draw alone, which feels more probable than an Estonia win, pays 3.00. “Under 2.5 goals” looks very probable, but is at just 1.42. “Under 1.5” may be worth the risk, at 2.25.