Flamengo vs Corinthians
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 19 November 2017
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
Knowing how poor (more like… unacceptable) their record away from home had been for weeks and weeks (they had seven losses in their last eight matches as guests), and keeping in mind how good Coritiba had been looking lately, I bet against Flamengo when they traveled to Curitiba a few days ago, and they lost indeed, 1-0. Truth is though, they dominated during most of the game, created and missed a good number of chances, and conceded the only goal of the match in the 8th minute, in Coritiba’s first and last, pretty much, visit to Fla’s box. Then again, that’s football. Flamengo have earned points in games that they didn’t really deserve them this season, and were left empty-handed in Curitiba, despite being the better team. Before placing your bet, do keep in mind that Flamengo are hosting Junior in four days, and Reinaldo Rueda, their coach, will definitely make sure to have his best 11 as fresh as possible for the Copa Sudamericana semifinal.
Ten matches into the season, in other words, with about 25% of the Serie A campaign already gone, it was pretty obvious who were going to rule the championship, who were the huge favorites to win the title. Corinthians had a first round for the history books, almost perfect, but at the start of the second round they looked too complacent, dropping one point after another. When the gap between them and their closest challengers was closed (kind of) to six points, they… rose to the occasion, picked up back-to-back victories, with their last one, at home, over Fluminense, being THE one, the victory that secured them the Serie A title. They are 10 points ahead of second-placed Gremio, with three games left, so it’s game over for Gremio (and the rest). Corinthians were actually 1-0 down at halftime against Fluminense (I had backed them to win and expected the game to have three goals or more), but pushed by their fans (their stadium was full t-o t-h-e b-r-i-m) they staged an impressive comeback. Jô found the back of the net twice in the first four minutes, and Jádson added the cherry on top with his 85th-minute goal. Huge night for Corinthians, the new Brazil Serie A champions.
Previous 5 matches:
Coritiba vs Flamengo 1-0
Palmeiras vs Flamengo 2-0
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro 2-0
Gremio vs Flamengo 3-1
Flamengo vs Fluminense 3-3
Corinthians vs Fluminense 3-1
Corinthians vs Avai 1-0
Atletico PR vs Corinthians 0-1
Corinthians vs Palmeiras 3-2
Ponte Preta vs Corinthians 1-0
Flamengo’s next game is on on Thursday, again at home, versus Junior (Barranquilla, Colombia), the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana semifinal tie. Corinthians will be hosting Atletico Mineiro next Sunday (Brazil Serie A).
Flamengo vs Corinthians: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Flamengo, two for Corinthians, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Rio de Janeiro. Three of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Flamengo vs Corinthians: Prediction
If Flamengo didn’t have the Copa Sudamericana semifinal in a few days, I would consider backing them to win this game, but knowing that they have prioritized the match against Junior, and seeing their win pay just 1.80, I find it rather easy to go with Corinthians’ double chance, which pays better than Flamengo’s win alone.
Flamengo vs Corinthians: Betting Tips
Corinthians’ double chance is at 1.91 and is my main tip. Actually, given how tricky I consider this game (Flamengo have prioritized the Sudamericana semifinal, and Corinthians have already secured the championship title), I’d avoid any other bet, involving number of goals, for example.
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