Gremio vs Corinthians
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 2 December 2018
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
That 0-0 at Vitória last weekend wasn’t the best result for Gremio, but they are lucky that Sao Paulo have been pathetic for weeks now, if not a couple of months. The two teams are level on 63 points, with Gremio 4th, and Sao Paulo 5th in the table, because the Porto Alegre side have won 17 matches, and Sao Paulo 16. Gremio want to finish fourth, so as to earn a direct ticket to next season’s Copa Libertadores group stage. If they fall 5th, they’ll need to play qualifiers. Libertadores-aside, the big news, the huge news this past week at Gremio, was that Renato Portaluppi, their coach, renewed his contract for another season. Flamengo had approached him, it’s a common secret in Brazil that he would love to coach Flamengo one day, but this time, he chose to stay at Gremio, feeling that their project for next season suits him better than that of Flamengo. Plus, at Gremio he is… king. Flamengo’s “environment” is much more… complicated. He is loved there, but the pressure is much-much bigger.
Jair Ventura succeeded Osmar Loss early September. With just one game left this season, he is… officially the worst – results-wise – coach Corinthians have had since 2007. The Sao Paulo side are reported to be trying to strike a deal with Al-Wehda, the Saudi Arabian side coached by Fábio Carille, Corinthians’ former coach, the guy who led them to the Serie A title last year. According to the same reports, the Saudis are… bargaining hard, not willing to let their coach go without some serious benefits. What could Corinthians offer them? Money? No. What they do have, is players, and that’s the deal they are negotiating, who would please the Saudis enough, to allow Carille to leave. The coach himself has stayed quiet these last weeks, obviously letting the two clubs do all the talking. Corinthians are 12th in the table, earning a Copa Libertadores ticket. The highest they can finish is 11th. They can finish 14th though. If they lose, and Fluminense win, as well as either Ceará or Vasco in the game between them, Corinthians will be left 14th, and to play in the Copa Sudamericana next season they will depend on Atlético Paranaense to win the same competition this season (they are facing Junior, from Barranquilla, in the final). If they finish 13th, their ticket is guaranteed.
Previous five matches:
Vitoria vs Gremio 0-0
Flamengo vs Gremio 2-0
Gremio vs Chapecoense 2-0
Sao Paulo vs Gremio 1-1
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama 2-1
Corinthians vs Chapecoense 0-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians 1-0
Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Corinthians 1-0
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo 1-1
Both teams’ next scheduled official game is in seven weeks.
Gremio vs Corinthians: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Gremio, one for Corinthians, and a draw, in the last five games between these two in Porto Alegre.
Gremio vs Corinthians: Prediction
Gremio have their problems with players missing, but even so, they should still win this game.
Gremio vs Corinthians: Betting Tips
I do expect Gremio to win, but at 1.33, betting on their victory doesn’t appeal to me, especially keeping in mind that Sao Paulo are visiting Sport Recife, and Gremio need-need to win only if Sao Paulo are winning in Pernambuco (the games are played simultaneously). “Under 2.5 goals” is at 1.66, and Gremio’s “under 1.5” is at 2.20. I have a 1-0 hunch.