Guangzhou Evergrande vs Cerezo Osaka
Competition: AFC Champions League
Date: 17 April 2018
Kick-off: 13:00 CET
If only I were a fly on the wall of Guangzhou Evergrande’s locker room at the “Castle” of Buriram United, two weeks ago. Seconds before the completion of regular time, with the score at 0-1 for them, Goulart had an in-cre-di-ble chance to make it 0-2, and secure his team’s presence in the last 16 of the competition. Somehow, he missed it. A minute later, with the game in added time, Guangzhou got equalised… What that 1-1 means, is that if Guangzhou and Buriram finish level on points, then, given that both games between them ended in a 1-1 draw, it will come down to the overall goal difference in the group. How can Guangzhou avoid that? By at least drawing to Cerezo Osaka, so as to leave the Japanese and the Thais below them, regardless of what happens in the other group game.
Cerezo Osaka’s 2-1 win over Jeju United two weeks ago meant two things; first, they got Jeju off their back, for good, Jeju are down and out. Second, Cerezo depend on themselves, heading into the last game week of the group stage. If they win, not only they qualify, but do so as first in the group. If they draw? That’s where it starts getting… complicated. If they get just a point in Guangzhou, and Buriram United beat Jeju United in Korea, Cerezo are out, because they will finish level on points with Buriram, but have the disadvantage of having earned just one point in their two matches against them. The way things are in the group, even a defeat could send Cerezo to the last 16 of the competition, as long as Buriram don’t do better than a simple draw in Korea.
Previous five matches:
Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande 2-2
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Shandong Luneng 1-0
Buriram United vs Guangzhou Evergrande 1-1
Tianjin Quanjian vs Guangzhou Evergrande 0-1
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Henan Jianye 1-0
Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Cerezo Osaka 1-2
Cerezo Osaka vs Sagan Tosu 2-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Jeju United 2-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare 2-1
Evergrande’s next game is at Beijing Guoan, next weekend (China Super League). Cerezo Osaka will be visiting Gamba (J-League).
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Cerezo Osaka: Head to head Stats
Guangzhou have hosted Cerezo once before, in 2014. The Japanese side won that game, 1-0.
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Cerezo Osaka: Prediction
Leaving motive and form aside, I feel Guangzhou are a much better team than Cerezo, and, let’s not forget, they are playing at home. They have lost just one of their last 18 games as hosts in the Champions League.
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Cerezo Osaka: Betting Tips
A Cerezo win would be an absolute shock. A draw. Less, but still… All things considered, I put my trust in Guangzhou to win the game (1.60), and for something paying much better, I would gamble with “Guangzhou and over 2.5 goals”, at 2.35.
More AFC Champions League betting tips and match previews:
- Al Wasl vs Nasaf Qarshi
- Al Hilal vs Esteghlal
- Al Rayyan vs Al Ain
- Persepolis vs Al Sadd
- Kashima Antlers vs Suwon Bluewings
- Jeju United vs Buriram United
- Sydney FC vs Shanghai Shenhua
- Al Duhail vs Al Wahda
- Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Zob Ahan
- Al Jazira vs Al Ahli
- Tractor Sazi vs Al Gharafa
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Ulsan Hyundai
- Melbourne Victory vs Shanghai SIPG
- Jeonbuk Motors vs Kitchee
- Tianjin Quanjian vs Kashiwa Reysol