Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory
Competition: AFC Champions League
Date: 7 March 2018
Kick-off: 11:00 CET
“Over 2.5 combined goals” was at 1.81 two weeks ago when Kawasaki Frontale visited Ulsan Hyundai, and that was my only tip, since Ulsan’s double chance was paying less than 1.50. I didn’t expect Kawasaki to win, and they didn’t, they lost 2-1. offering their… very welcome goal in the 85th minute. That’s a goal that may prove important in case the two teams end up level in the table, at the end of the group stage. In their first two games in the J-League they went from “wow” to… “that’s all?” First they triumphed 3-0 at Júbilo Iwata, but last weekend they couldn’t do better than 1-1 at home against Shonan Bellmare. After losing both their games in the AFC CL group, they are with their back against the wall, having no option but to… die trying to win this match.
A simple Shanghai SIPG win over Melbourne Victory two weeks ago was at just 1.53, so I took the extra risk to suggest combining it with “over 2.5 goals”, and the game ended in a 4-1 SIPG triumph. Victory looked… dizzy in the first half and in the first minutes of the second one, going 3-0 down in the 47th minute. They got one back, but the… ship had already sailed for them. Oscar added a second personal, 4-1, with Melbourne having conceded seven goals in their first two AFC CL group matches. They definitely bounced back though, at least in the A-League, beating both Adelaide United and Melbourne City. They are fourth in the table of their championship, but these two wins have boosted their morale. Do keep in mind, Melbourne Victory have never won away from home in the AFC CL, not once in 17 matches(!). Their coach said they will need to act “smart”, take advantage of Kawasaki’s weaknesses, but to me, it looks like Victory are the ones with the biggest number of those (weaknesses).
Previous five matches:
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shonan Bellmare 1-1
Júbilo Iwata vs Kawasaki Frontale 0-3
Ulsan Hyundai vs Kawasaki Frontale 2-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shanghai SIPG 0-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Cerezo Osaka 2-3
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory 1-2
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United 3-0
Shanghai SIPG vs Melbourne Victory 4-1
Melbourne Victory vs Ulsan Hyundai 3-3
Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar 1-2
Kawasaki’s next game is on Saturday, again at home, versus Gamba Osaka (Japan championship). Melbourne Victory don’t have a game next weekend, they are hosting Kawasaki next week.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory: Head to head Stats
Kawasaki Frontale beat Melbourne Victory 4-0 at home back in 2010, in an AFC CL group stage match, the only time they have hosted them before.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory: Prediction
I wish I believed in Melbourne Victory’s chances of leaving Japan undefeated, their double chance pays an awesome 2.75, but I don’t. I expect Kawasaki to win the game.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory: Betting Tips
A simple Frontale win is at just 1.40. Melbourne victory’s two previous games in the group had had a total of 11 goals, but… for some reason, I expect their defence to look much tighter in this match, and play a big role in keeping the game “under 2.5”. It pays 2.87(!), and more than that if combined with a Frontale win. Despite expecting Kawasaki to win, I think 2.87 is great enough to avoid the extra risk. A more conservative approach is to go for “under 3.5”, still paying a decent 1.72.
More AFC Champions League betting tips and match previews:
- Nasaf Qarshi vs Al Sadd
- Persepolis vs Al Wasl
- Al Jazira vs Tractor Sazi
- Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli
- Jeonbuk Motors vs Tianjin Quanjian
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Kitchee
- Buriram United vs Cerezo Osaka
- Guangzhou Evergrande vs Jeju United
- Zob Ahan vs Al Wahda
- Al Duhail vs Lokomotiv Tashkent
- Al Ain vs Esteghlal
- Al Hilal vs Al Rayyan
- Sydney FC vs Kashima Antlers
- Suwon Bluewings vs Shanghai Shenhua
- Shanghai SIPG vs Ulsan Hyundai