Lazio vs Marseille
Competition: UEFA Europa League
Date: 8 November 2018
Kick-off: 18:55 CET
Lazio were considered underdogs two weeks ago when they visited Olympique Marseille, but I skipped the French side’s win, went for goals instead, and the choice paid off; “over 2.5 goals” (1.65), the same combined with “both teams to score” (2.05), and last but not least, “over 3.5 goals” (2.50), all three came good, as Lazio earned a big-big 1-3 victory. An hour into the game they were 0-2 up, they got momentarily worried when Marseille shortened the gap, but still won by two goals, scoring last. The Italian side are on six points from three matches in the group, five more than Marseille, so this game is a chance to finish the thing off, create a gap between them and the French side that will be mathematically impossible to cover in the last two game weeks. Last weekend they beat SPAL 4-1 at home. They are fifth in their championship, on 21 points from 11 matches, 10 points behind leaders Juventus.
Marseille seem to be… free-falling. They lost at home to Lazio, lost at home to PSG a well (not that it was a big surprise), and last weekend they lost 3-0 at Montpellier (that, yes, was a surprise, at least the score, not so much the defeat itself). They have fallen sixth in the Ligue 1 table, and they are on just one point from three matches in their Europa League group, with their back against the wall. What was… ironic, two weeks ago, was that they finished their home game against Lazio on 15-9 attempts, 4-4 on target, 8-2 corners won, and more than 60% ball possession. Numbers say they deserved better, but… no number in football is more important than that of the goals a team scores, and Lazio looked super effective, scoring three times, and even having a shot on the post.
Previous five matches:
Lazio vs SPAL 4-1
Lazio vs Inter Milan 0-3
Marseille vs Lazio 1-3
Parma vs Lazio 0-2
Lazio vs Fiorentina 1-0
Montpellier vs Marseille 3-0
Marseille vs PSG 0-2
Marseille vs Lazio 1-3
Nice vs Marseille 0-1
Marseille vs Caen 2-0
Lazio’s next game is at Sassuolo, on Sunday (Italy Serie A). Same day, Marseille will be hosting Dijon (France Ligue 1).
Lazio vs Marseille: Head to head Stats
Lazio have hosted Marseille twice before; they beat them 5-1(!) in 2000, and drew 1-1 in 2005.
Lazio vs Marseille: Prediction
The hosts are considered favorites to win, and I agree with that. I just don’t trust Marseille to earn a positive result in Rome.
Lazio vs Marseille: Betting Tips
Lazio’s win is at 1.70. I would stay with that, despite having seen goal-related tips two weeks ago come good. If I absolute had to bet on something paying better than Lazio’s win, I would risk with their victory combined with a clean sheet. Like that, it pays 3.60(!).