Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan
Competition: Poland Ekstraklasa
Date: 4 March 2018
Kick-off: 18:00 CET
Legia Warsaw were considered big favourites to beat Jagiellonia Bialystok midweek, but I backed Jaga to earn at least a draw, their double chance was at 2.15, and it came good, as the Bialystok side triumphed 2-0(!). Legia got outplayed by a team that has proven again and again that they know how to get the results, without really impressing with the football they play. It should definitely be mentioned though that Legia were left with 10 men just 15 minutes into the match, when Domagoj Antolić got sent off. Even at home, Legia’s mission against this season’s Jagiellonia was super tough, and if that weren’t enough, they conceded just before half time from the penalty spot. Even so, Legia stayed in the game until the 89th minute, which is when Jaga scored their second goal. My point is, even under all those unfavourable circumstances, Legia could still have avoided defeat.
Thanks to VAR, Lech Poznan didn’t get deprived of two points they deserved, not because they were incredibly better than Slask Wroclaw midweek (they weren’t), but because there was no offside in Christian Gytkjaer’s goal in the 89th minute, the assistant was wrong to raise his flag. Thankfully for Lech, VAR is used in Poland, and about a minute later, the referee showed the centre of the pitch. Win for Lech, 2-1, with all three goals coming after the 80th minute. Not for the first time this season, there were good parts of the game that Lech looked second best on the pitch, despite playing at home, and against a less strong opponent. It has happened before, usually Lech got away with it, and it happened again midweek. Last weekend they lost 1-0 at Korona Kielce, their first away loss after four consecutive 0-0 draws(!).
Previous five matches:
Legia Warsaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-2
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warsaw 0-0
Legia Warsaw vs Slask Wroclaw 4-1
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warsaw 2-3
Legia Warsaw vs Wisla Plock 0-2
Lech Poznan vs Slask Wroclaw 2-1
Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan 1-0
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin 2-0
Arka Gdynia vs Lech Poznan 0-0
Lech Poznan vs Nieciecza 3-1
Legia’s next game is at Lechia Gdansk. Lech’s, at home versus Jagiellonia Bialystok. Both next weekend, both Poland Ekstraklasa matches.
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Legia and two for Lech in the last five games between these two in Warsaw. Only two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan: Prediction
Legia are absolutely desperate to bounce back from that unexpected 2-0 defeat at home to Jagiellonia, and the fact that they are hosting a championship title contender gives them an extra motive. I expect them to win.
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan: Betting Tips
Legia’s win is at 2.30 betting odds, and I would stay with that. If in the mood to act greedy, I would bet on Legia and over 2.5 goals, at 3.75(!), because I don’t trust their defence to keep a clean sheet, but I do expect them to win.