Libertad vs Atletico Tucuman
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 18 May 2018
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
Libertad have had a great group campaign, winning four of their five games thus far, including two away from home. They will finish first even if they lose by up to two goals. The bonus that comes with finishing first instead of second, is that they will play at home the return leg in the round of 16. Last weekend they got frustrated at Sol de América, leaving Villa Elisa with just one point, despite leading 1-3 until the 80th minute. They totally dropped the ball in the last 10 minutes, wasting two points. Draw in this game pays just over 2.00(!), as betting companies expect Libertad not to… die trying to win the game, given that they don’t really need to.
Unlike Libertad whose only interest in this game is to make sure they finish first, Atlético Tucumán need a point to secure their spot in the last 16 of the competition. They are on nine points, three more than Peñarol. If the Montevideo side beat The Strongest at home, which is the most-most probable, and Atlético Tucumán lose in Asunción, they will be left third, because they will have a worst goal difference than Peñarol. Coach Ricardo Zielinski has several players unavailable due to injuries. Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla, left-back Cristian Villagra, another left-back Nahuel Zárate, attacking midfielder Favio Álvarez, and left winger Alejandrio Melo, all five are out, important blows to Tucumán, who drew 0-0 at Lanús last Friday, finishing 15th in Argentina’s Superliga.
Previous five matches:
Sol de America vs Libertad 3-3
Libertad vs 3 de Febrero 2-0
Cerro Porteno vs Libertad 0-2
The Strongest vs Libertad 1-3
Libertad vs Deportivo Santani 1-1
Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman 0-0
Atletico Tucuman vs Olimpo 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Penarol 1-0
Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman 3-2
Atletico Tucuman vs The Strongest 3-0
Libertad’s next game is on Monday, again at home, versus Nacional Asunción (Paraguay Apertura). Atlético Tucumán don’t have a next game scheduled yet.
Libertad vs Atletico Tucuman: Head to head Stats
Libertad’s 0-2 win at Atlético earlier this year was the first game ever between these two.
Libertad vs Atletico Tucuman: Prediction
As previously mentioned, draw pays just over 2.00 (2.10, it started at 2.50 when the odds first came out). Will Libertad try to win the game, especially in the last 10 minutes? Only they know (for sure).
Libertad vs Atletico Tucuman: Betting Tips
“Under 2.5 goals”, at 1.55, feels super probable to me. It doesn’t pay “wow”, but it feels very-very probable. Libertad’s win in “draw no bet” is at 1.66. Both pay little, but I’m hesitant to suggest draw alone, because I haven’t read anything in Paraguayan media about Libertad intending to… sit back and spend 90 minutes fooling around so that Atlético Tucumán don’t miss their ticket to the last 16. I would avoid betting on this game (or stick to that 1.55).
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: