Libertad vs Guarani
Competition: Paraguay Clausura
Date: 12 August 2018
Kick-off: 23:45 CET
I had zero faith in Libertad last weekend, when they visited Independiente de Campo Grande, suggesting Inde’s win in “draw no bet” (3.40) and their double chance (2.00), I had no faith in Libertad midweek as well, when they visited Boca Juniors in the Copa Libertadores. They lost 1-0 in Campo Grande and 2-0 in Buenos Aires. Their defeat in Argentina was particularly painful, as it left them with a mountain to climb in the return leg, in Asunción. In five games after the World Cup finals they have two draws and three defeats. They are sitting at the bottom of the table in the Clausura, on just two points from four matches, having scored just two goals.
For some reason, Guaraní were considered clear favorites to beat Nacional at home last weekend, but I had no doubt to back Nacional to earn at least a draw (their double chance was at 1.90!). The game ended in a 1-1 draw, and Guaraní should be perfectly fine with that, as they were second best on the pitch in big parts of the game, plus, they played with 10 men after the 70th minute. Central midfielder Jorge Morel was sent-off, and is obviously unavailable this weekend. Just for the record, Rodolfo Gamarra’s free-kick goal in the 7th minute was… pure poetry. Guaraní won on their Clausura debut, but have drawn in all three matches since then. Still, six points from four matches, and still undefeated, is much better than their… “accomplishments” in the(ir horrible) Apertura. Midweek, they eliminated minnows Tacuary in the Copa Paraguay, on penalties.
Previous five matches:
Boca Juniors vs Libertad 2-0
Independiente CG vs Libertad 1-0
Sud América vs Libertad 0-1
Libertad vs Cerro Porteno 1-1
Deportivo Capiata vs Libertad 1-1
Tacuary vs Guarani 1-1
Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion 1-1
Guarani vs Independiente CG 0-0
Cerro Porteno vs Guarani 1-1
Guarani vs Deportivo Capiata 1-0
Libertad’s next game is again at home, versus Nacional, on Monday, August 20. Two days earlier, Guaraní will have hosted Sol de América (both Clausura matches).
Libertad vs Guarani: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Libertad, one for Guaraní, and two draws, in the last five games between these two with Libertad as hosts.
Libertad vs Guarani: Prediction
Seeing Libertad be considered favorites to win the game, and knowing what a mess they are at the moment, I’m super tempted to bet against them. At some point they will bounce back, but I hope it won’t be this weekend, against a team that remains undefeated in the Clausura.
Libertad vs Guarani: Betting Tips
Guaraní’s win in “draw no bet” is at 2.50, and their double chance at 1.72.