Libertad vs The Strongest
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 4 April 2018
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
Libertad were considered outsiders when they visited Atlético Tucumán three weeks ago, their double chance was at 1.75, that was my main tip, and the Paraguayans did even better than what I expected, they actually won the game 2-0, taking super early a clear advantage over the Argentines in the race for a top 2 finish. It’s interesting that just before that game in Argentina, they had their first defeat in Paraguay’s Apertura, at home, to Sol de América, playing with a rotated team. Their coach, Aldo Bobadilla, had implied that against Independiente de Campo Grande, last Thursday, he would start with his best possible 11, but still, he left experienced striker Óscar Cardozo on the bench, and only sent him in with half an hour left, time by which Libertad were already 2-0 down, and playing with 10 men. Cardozo’s presence on the pitch definitely changed things, Libertad looked more and more threatening, but somehow missed all the chances they created. When they finally scored, in the 87th minute, Inde had already made it 3-0. It feels like the Copa Libertadores “distraction” is costing Libertad in the Apertura, but… as long as they get results like that one at Atlético Tucumán, the distraction looks worth it.
A simple The Strongest win three weeks ago, when they hosted Peñarol, was at just 1.40, so I took the extra risk to suggest combining that with a clean sheet, tempted by the 2.10 it paid. It came good, as the La Paz side won the game 1-0. Interestingly, that was their last positive result. They lost back-to-back games in Bolivia’s championship, and the board of directors decided to fire the coach and hire César Farías, who has worked there before, and is seen as the man who can lead the team to successes. On Friday, he “enjoyed” a poor debut, a 1-0 home defeat to Nacional Potosí. Despite the negative result, he said he is confident better days are to come, basing his optimism on the roster, his good “feeling” about the group of players he has available at The Strongest. Do keep in mind that the La Paz giants have won just two of their 32 Copa Libertadores games as guests since 2004, losing in the vast majority of those matches, a record exactly opposite to the one they have as hosts at La Paz’s extreme altitude.
Previous five matches:
Independiente CG vs Libertad 3-1
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad 1-1
Deportivo Capiata vs Libertad 2-4
Atletico Tucuman vs Libertad 0-2
Libertad vs Sol de America 1-2
The Strongest vs Nacional Potosi 0-1
Blooming vs The Strongest 2-1
San Jose vs The Strongest 3-1
The Strongest vs Penarol 1-0
The Strongest vs Aurora 2-1
Libertad’s next game is on Saturday, again at home, versus General Díaz (Paraguay Apertura). On Sunday, The Strongest are facing Bolívar, in La Paz’s huge derby (Bolivia championship).
Libertad vs The Strongest: Head to head Stats
This is the first game ever between these two.
Libertad vs The Strongest: Prediction
I do expect Libertad to win, but at 1.30 a simple victory of theirs is just not worth it.
Libertad vs The Strongest: Betting Tips
If you’re after around 1.50 as an add-on to another bet, do consider “over 1.5”, paying 1.47. Betting companies offer an awesome 2.47 on “over 2.5 goals”, and personally I think it’s worth the risk, having watched all Libertad games in the Apertura thus far, having seen them create a lot of chances, score, but also concede, even against teams weaker than The Strongest (Deportivo Capiatá for example). “Libertad and over 2.5 goals” promises something around 3.00.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: