Liverpool vs Porto
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: 6 March 2018
Kick-off: 20:45 CET
“Over 3.5 combined goals”, at 2.75, was my riskiest tip when Liverpool visited Porto, and the Reds made sure to make even that tip “easy” to come good, as they thrashed Porto 5-0(!) in Portugal. Two victories in the Premier League came next, further boosting Liverpool’s chances of finishing in the top-4, so as to play Champions League football next season as well. On Saturday they beat Newcastle 2-0 at home, with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane scoring just before and right after halftime. According to reports in British media, Jurgen Klopp could rotate his team, since qualification for the quarterfinals of the Champions League is practically guaranteed. Nathaniel Clyne could play, having left behind him an injury that kept him out, even having played with the U23s recently. Adam Lallana is another player who has been troubled by injuries this season who could appear in this match. Do keep in mind, Liverpool have a mega-derby against Manchester United coming up.
The first leg against Liverpool was on February 14. In the next 16 days, Porto played four games in Portugal’s championship, and won all four, including a super important 2-1 at home on Friday, over Sporting Lisbon. It not only kept Porto’s distance from second-placed Benfica at five points, but it pretty much killed Sporting’s chances of winning the title, as they are now eight points behind leaders Porto. There are nine games left, a lot of those, anything can happen, but at this point, it feels like Porto are holding their fate into their own hands. On Saturday, the day after their triumph over Sporting, four players were dealing with different problems. Alex Telles, Danilo, Soares and Marega either missed training altogether, or followed a special program. Bottom line, Porto’s coach is not going to risk any players who are not 100% ready to play, and even among those, he is expected to rest some, as their chances of overturning that first leg 5-0 are… right about zero.
Previous five matches:
Liverpool vs Newcastle 2-0
Liverpool vs West Ham 4-1
Porto vs Liverpool 0-5
Southampton vs Liverpool 0-2
Liverpool vs Tottenham 2-2
Porto vs Sporting 2-1
Portimonense vs Porto 1-5
Estoril vs Porto 1-3
Porto vs Rio Ave 5-0
Porto vs Liverpool 0-5
Liverpool’s next game is on Saturday, at Manchester United (Premier League). On Sunday, Porto will be visiting Paços de Ferreira (Portugal championship).
Liverpool vs Porto: Head to head Stats
Liverpool have hosted Porto twice before. They beat them 2-0 in 2001 in a Europa League quarterfinal, and 4-1 in 2007, in a Champions League group stage game.
Liverpool vs Porto: Prediction
Liverpool are considered practically sure winners, but personally I wouldn’t touch their 1.45, not after having finished the qualification off in the first leg, with a huge game against Manchester United in a few days.
Liverpool vs Porto: Betting Tips
“Over 2.5 goals” is at 1.62, and “over 3.5” pays 2.65. Will Porto try save some face? I think so. Will Liverpool score and try to win the game, no matter how big Klopp’s rotation may be? I think so too. Bottom line, I expect goals.
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