Nacional Montevideo vs Fluminense
Competition: Copa Sudamericana
Date: 31 October 2018
Kick-off: 23:30 CET
Matías Zunino’s 88th-minute goal last week, in the first leg, has given Nacional an advantage. Not a huge one, but an advantage nonetheless. Nacional had four good moments offensively in the first 15 minutes in Rio de Janeiro, but once they went 1-0 down, in the 17th minute, they looked… affected, and were a bit lucky not to concede again in the first half. They hanged in there, and in the 88th minute they scored the goal they needed. Last weekend they did it again, they equalized in the 86th minute, playing at Atenas. Actually, they were 2-0 down at halftime. They salvaged a point, but it didn’t make any difference, as Peñarol were either way crowned champions in Uruguay. Nacional announced they sold all available tickets for this match, no surprise, first because it’s a huge game, second because their Gran Parque Central can “only” host about 30,000 people. No matter what happens in the Copa Sudamericana, Nacional have a spot in the Copa Libertadores group stage secured.
Good news for Fluminense is that Gum, their captain, a center-back who seems impossible to substitute today at Flu, trained properly these last days, and should start the game. His presence was a doubt until they trained for the first time in Uruguay. Gum is the one who scored for them last week. Initially, the goal was annulled as an offside, but thankfully for him and Fluminense, the VAR system proved that the goal was perfectly legit. Ironically, in the second half, Flu scored a goal that was soon annulled as offside, even though the assistant had not raised his flag. Again, VAR was clear, there was offside. Last weekend, the Rio de Janeiro side lost 3-0 at Santos, as expected and predicted here (to lose, without scoring). Fluminense have two wins and a defeat as visitors this year in the Sudamericana. They have already won in Uruguay, 0-1, over Defensor Sporting.
Previous five matches:
Atenas vs Nacional 2-2
Fluminense vs Nacional 1-1
Nacional vs Peñarol 1-1
Boston River vs Nacional 1-0
Liverpool vs Nacional 1-2
Santos vs Fluminense 3-0
Fluminense vs Nacional Montevideo 1-1
Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro 1-0
Flamengo vs Fluminense 3-0
Fluminense vs Parana 4-0
Nacional’s next game is the coming weekend, again at home, versus Danubio (Uruguay championship). On Saturday, Fluminense will be facing Vasco da Gama (Brazil Série A).
Nacional Montevideo vs Fluminense: Head to head Stats
Nacional beat Fluminense 2-0 in 2011, the only time they’ve hosted them before.
Nacional Montevideo vs Fluminense: Prediction
Nacional have an impressive record at home this year, in CONMEBOL competitions. Libertadores and Sudamericana combined, they have seven wins and a draw, no defeat, and, read this, they are yet to concede, I repeat, in eight matches(!). Two of those wins were over Brazilian teams, Chapecoense and Santos. They are considered favorites to win, but I prefer to bet on their clean sheet.
Nacional Montevideo vs Fluminense: Betting Tips
Nacional’s clean sheet is at 2.10, my main tip. If I bet on their win (2.15), I would make the risk really worth it, and combine it with a clean sheet. Like this, it pays 3.00.