Nacional Montevideo vs Real Garcilaso
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 26 April 2018
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
Central midfielder Santiago Romero is unavailable due to cards, but other than him, Nacional coach Alexander Medina has a pretty much full squad. The Montevideo side are at the bottom of the group table on just two points from three matches, but not all hope is lost. First, they have two home games left. Second, they just played a very good match, drawing 1-1 to Peñarol, a result that left them very close to winning the title in Uruguay. They are leading by two points, and there are two matches left. Nacional haven’t lost in 40 days, their last defeat was at Santos, mid March, but have drawn in three of their last four matches. Against Real Garcilaso, a simple draw just won’t be enough. The game between these two in Peru three weeks ago, ended in a goalless draw.
Real Garcilaso are on four points from three group matches, third in the table, still undefeated at home (win over Santos, draw against Nacional). Under certain circumstances, even a draw would be great for the Peruvian side in this match, especially if it’s one with goals. An 1-1 for example, would keep them two points ahead of Nacional, and would give them the advantage in case the two finish level on points. Last Friday, Real Garcilaso lost 3-0 to Sport Huancayo, a result that meant the end of their dream to play in the championship final against the winner of the other group (Sporting Cristal). The Cuzco side have conceded five goals in their last two games. In two home matches in the Libertadores they kept as many clean sheets, but conceded three goals at Estudiantes.
Previous five matches:
Penarol vs Nacional 1-1
Nacional vs Boston River 1-0
Real Garcilaso vs Nacional 0-0
Nacional vs Liverpool 0-0
Wanderers vs Nacional 0-2
Real Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo 0-3
Union Comercio vs Real Garcilaso 2-2
Real Garcilaso vs Academia Cantolao 1-0
Melgar vs Real Garcilaso 1-2
Real Garcilaso vs Nacional 0-0
Nacional’s next game is on Saturday, again at home, versus Atenas (Uruguay championship). Same day Real Garcilaso will be visiting Deportivo Binacional (Peru championship).
Nacional Montevideo vs Real Garcilaso: Head to head Stats
Nacional have hosted Real Garcilaso once before, in 2013. It was a Copa Libertadores round of 16 match, return leg, Nacional won 1-0, but lost on penalties.
Nacional Montevideo vs Real Garcilaso: Prediction
I wish I believed in Real Garcilaso’s double chance, it pays an awesome 3.90, but I don’t.
Nacional Montevideo vs Real Garcilaso: Betting Tips
Nacional have been awesome defensively in their last games, but have struggled offensively. A simple win of theirs pays just 1.22, and combined with a clean sheet it goes up to 1.62, still low. My main tip would be “under 2.5 goals”, at 1.80, and since I do expect them to win, I would risk with “Nacional and under 2.5 goals”, tempted by its 2.65.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews:
- Deportivo Lara vs Millonarios
- Santos vs Estudiantes
- Atletico Nacional vs Bolivar
- Atletico Tucuman vs The Strongest
- Monagas vs Defensor Sporting
- Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras
- Santa Fe vs Flamengo
- River Plate vs Emelec
- Cruzeiro vs Universidad Chile
- Penarol vs Libertad
- Junior vs Alianza Lima
- Vasco da Gama vs Racing Club