Napoli vs Red Star Belgrade
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: 28 November 2018
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
Napoli are leading the group, on six points, as many as Liverpool, but for the time being they have an advantage over them because they have beaten them in Italy. The end of this match against Red Star, may find them anything from… already in the last-16 of the competition, mathematically, to third(!). If they win, and Liverpool don’t lose at PSG, Napoli are in the last-16, because they’ll have a three-point difference to the French side, and if they finish level on points, it’s the Italian team that have the advantage (they drew 2-2 in Paris, and 1-1 at home). On the other hand, if they lose, they run serious risk of finishing… fourth(!), because their last game, in two weeks, is in Liverpool. They are expected to start with Ospina, Hysaj, Albiol, Koulibaly, Mario Rui, Callejón, Allan, Hamšík, Ruiz, Insigne and Mertens.
Three weeks ago I had serious doubts Liverpool would win in Belgrade, I chose “under 2.5 goals”, at 2.50, as my tip, but truth is, I didn’t expect Red Star to beat Klopp’s men by two goals(!). That 2-0 has boosted the Serbs’ chances of qualifying for the last-16 of the competition. They may be fourth in the table, but they are just two points behind leaders Napoli. They remain underdogs, no doubt, but… they earned the right to dream. In two weeks they will be hosting PSG. They are expected to start with Borjan, Degenek, Gobeljić, Rodić, Babić, Krstičić, Jovičić, Marin, Ben, Srnić and Boakye. They have half a dozen players out, injured, but they’ve proved that they don’t depend on certain players, they are a team that finds solutions with those available.
Previous five matches:
Napoli vs Chievo 0-0
Genoa vs Napoli 1-2
Napoli vs PSG 1-1
Napoli vs Empoli 5-1
Napoli vs Roma 1-1
Radnički Niš vs Red Star Belgrade 2-2
Red Star Belgrade vs Bačka Topola 4-1
Dinamo Vranje vs Red Star Belgrade 0-3
Red Star Belgrade vs Liverpool 2-0
Proleter Novi Sad vs Red Star Belgrade 0-2
Napoli’s next game is at Atalanta, on Monday (Italy Serie A). Red Star are hosting Voždovac on Sunday (Serbia championship).
Napoli vs Red Star Belgrade: Head to head Stats
Napoli have never hosted Red Star before.
Napoli vs Red Star Belgrade: Prediction
Napoli didn’t manage to win in Belgrade back in September, but that was a very-very different game. Any other result but a win of theirs now, would be a massive surprise.
Napoli vs Red Star Belgrade: Betting Tips
Given that a simple Napoli win is not paying more than 1.16, I would risk with “Napoli to win and keep a clean sheet”, at 1.61 (still low), and most of all, with “Napoli and under 3.5 goals”, at 1.90. Red Star have conceded 10(!) goals in two away games already, but Napoli have scored just four goals in as many games in the group, and a 2-0 or 3-0 will be more than enough for them in this match.