Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno
Competition: Paraguay Apertura
Date: 10 March 2018
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
There is no doubt Olimpia are at a much better place than Cerro Porteño ahead of this Clásico. Last weekend I backed them to beat Deportivo Santaní in Ciudad del Este expecting the game to have at least three goals, and they won 5-1, a match that was played on… two consecutive days. At halftime, on Saturday, with Olimpia winning 1-0, the referee decided to postpone the second half for next morning, as the pitch was too heavy from the non-stop rain. Next morning, Olimpia were… a typhoon, destroying Santaní 5-1. Olimpia have four wins and a draw in the Apertura, leading on 13 points, kind of… redeeming themselves for their pathetic performance at Junior, in the return leg of their Copa Libertadores qualifying tie against the Colombian side. It still hurts their fans that they are not playing CL group stage football, but they have definitely responded well in their championship, not just winning most games, but playing good football as well, scoring at least twice in each game.
“Ahead of a Clásico, you leave the table aside, the points count less than other things”. That’s what Luis Zubeldía, Cerro Porteño’s coach said commenting on the seven-point gap between his team and leaders Olimpia. He is right, the pride in such games comes first, Cerro and Olimpia fans get absolutely nuts about the games between their teams, but, truth is, if Cerro lose, they are left 10 points behind Olimpia, with one fourth of the championship already gone. Cerro are hosting Defensor Sporting on Tuesday, it’s their first Copa Libertadores home game this season, they have already beaten Monagas in Venezuela, but Zubeldía is expected to field his best possible 11, knowing perfectly well that this is a game his team cannot “sacrifice”, not even with a big Libertadores match coming up. Last weekend, at home, against Deportivo Capiatá, they could have won… 5-3, but they got stuck to a 2-2 draw, their third in five Apertura matches thus far.
Previous five matches:
Deportivo Santani vs Olimpia Asuncion 1-5
Olimpia Asuncion vs Guarani 5-2
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion 2-2
Olimpia vs General Diaz 3-1
Junior vs Olimpia 3-1
Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Capiata 2-2
Monagas vs Cerro Porteno 0-2
Libertad vs Cerro Porteno 1-1
Cerro Porteno vs Sol de America 2-0
3 de Febrero vs Cerro Porteno 1-1
Olimpia’s next game is at 3 de Febrero on Thursday (Paraguay Apertura). On Tuesday, Cerro Porteño will be hosting Defensor Sporting (Copa Libertadores group stage).
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno: Head to head Stats
Olimpia have three wins in a row over Cerro as hosts. Before that, Cerro had back-to-back wins. Two of Olimpia’s three wins went over 2.5 goals.
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno: Prediction
I don’t see Olimpia lose, but… do I trust them enough to win the game without including the safety net of “draw no bet”? Deep-deep down, yes.
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno: Betting Tips
Olimpia’s win pays 2.15, less than what I was hoping for, but even at 2.15, I’m taking it. For the… greedier among you, “Olimpia and over 2,5 goals” is at 3.00 betting odds.