Olimpia vs Sol de America
Competition: Paraguay Apertura
Date: 20 March 2018
Kick-off: 00:00 CET
“Olimpia and over 3.5 goals” (2.45) was my main tip a few days ago when Olimpia visited 3 de Febrero, and they “delivered”, winning the game 4-0. Things looked bleak at Olimpia the night they got eliminated by Junior in the second qualifying round of the Copa Libertadores, but they haven’t just bounced back, they have earned the title of the undisputed favourites to win the Apertura, which will give them a direct ticket to the Copa Libertadores group stage next season. Actually, Olimpia’s new target, as… timidly admitted, is to finish the Apertura undefeated. They have six wins and a draw in seven matches thus far, no defeat, and mind you, some of those wins have been triumphs, scoring four and five goals. Youngster Amaguín González made the headlines a few days ago, starting the game, and bursting to tears after getting substituted before the first half was over. Teams in Paraguay are obliged to start the game with at least one U19, but there is no rule obliging them to keep them on the field for a minimum number of minutes. González played for about half an hour before getting substituted, something he took with grace, until he reached the bench, where he burst to tears. He will miss the game against Sol de América, because of joining Paraguay’s U21 team (they have friendly games the coming week). Hugo Quintana, a 16-year-old(!), is expected to start the game (and get substituted before halftime).
Sol de América’s win combined with over 2.5 goals was paying 3.00 midweek, when they hosted Deportivo Capiatá, and that was my main tip, trusting them to win and score enough to push the game over 2.5. They… surpassed my high expectations, leading 3-0 by halftime(!). Final score, 5-1, conceding that goal in the 86th minute, with the score already at 5-0. It’s interesting that they have the second best scoring record in the league, as only leaders Olimpia have scored more than them. What’s also interesting is that they have conceded in every single game thus far, even in their wins. With 10 points from their last four matches, they are one of the 2-3 hottest teams in the country right now, and what they have going for them in this game is that they are underdogs, no pressure, perfect conditions to… produce an eye-catching surprise.
Previous five matches:
3 de Febrero vs Olimpia 0-4
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno 1-0
Deportivo Santani vs Olimpia Asuncion 1-5
Olimpia Asuncion vs Guarani 5-2
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion 2-2
Sol de America vs Deportivo Capiata 5-1
Libertad vs Sol de America 1-2
Nacional Asuncion vs Sol de America 1-1
Sol de America vs 3 de Febrero 4-1
Cerro Porteno vs Sol de America 2-0
Olimpia’s next game is against Libertad, on Monday, March 26. Same day, Sol de América will be hosting Independiente de Campo Grande (both Paraguay Apertura matches).
Olimpia vs Sol de America: Head to head Stats
The last two games between these two with Olimpia as hosts have ended 2-2, both. Before that, Olimpia had three wins in a row as hosts to Sol, by a total score of 10-2(!).
Olimpia vs Sol de America: Prediction
Deep down I expect Olimpia to win, but betting-wise, I’m staying away from that 1.53 their victory pays. I prefer to bet on goals.
Olimpia vs Sol de America: Betting Tips
“Both teams to score” is at 1.60, slightly better than Olimpia’s win, and I like it a lot, because of the… nature of both teams. “Over 3.5 goals” is my main tip though, at 2.35. Actually, I have a 4-2 hunch, I expect more than four goals, but… at 2.35, I find “over 3.5” satisfying.